tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58678059600915816712024-03-18T06:13:30.619-07:00Bessette Pitney TextBessette/Pitney’s AMERICAN GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS: DELIBERATION, DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP reviews the idea of "deliberative democracy." Building on the book, this blog offers insights, analysis, and facts about recent events. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6090125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-46777838197767042052024-03-18T06:12:00.000-07:002024-03-18T06:12:32.238-07:00Vaccine Misinformation<p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/08/a-member-of-congress-who-needs-to-read.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">Many</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/03/estimating-size-of-groups.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/02/politics-and-quack-cures.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">discussed</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/10/perceptions-of-violent-crime.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">myths</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> and </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/02/accepting-covid-misinformation.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">misinformation</a><span style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, Palatino Linotype, Palatino, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 13.2px;"> -- especially about <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/01/quack-cure-killed.html">COVID</a> and <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/03/myths-and-misinformation-about-measles.html">vaccines</a>.</span></span></p><p><a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2024/covid-four-year-anniversary/"> Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu at Poynter</a>:</p><blockquote>COVID-19 vaccines were quickly developed, with U.S. patients receiving the first shots in December 2020, 11 months after the first domestic case was detected.<br /><br />Experts credit the speedy development with helping to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/covid-vaccines-saved-20-million-lives-in-first-year-study-says">save millions of lives</a> and preventing hospitalizations. Researchers at the University of Southern California and Brown University calculated that <a href="https://healthpolicy.usc.edu/article/covid-vaccine-lives-saved-study/">vaccines saved 2.4 million lives</a> in 141 countries from January 2021 to August 2021 alone. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows there were 574 U.S. deaths <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_select_00">attributed to COVID-19</a> the week of March 2, down from nearly 26,000 at the pandemic’s height in January 2021, as vaccines were just rolling out.<br /><br />But on social media and in some public officials’ remarks, misinformation about COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and safety is common. U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. built his 2024 campaign on a movement that seeks to legitimize conspiracy theories about the vaccines. We made that our <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/dec/21/robert-f-kennedy-jrs-campaign-of-conspiracy-theori/">2023 Lie of the Year</a>.<br /><br />PolitiFact has seen claims that spike proteins from vaccines are <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/jan/26/arne-burkhadt/the-covid-19-vaccine-does-not-replace-male-sperm-w/">replacing sperm</a> in vaccinated males. (That’s <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/jan/26/arne-burkhadt/the-covid-19-vaccine-does-not-replace-male-sperm-w/">False</a>.) We’ve researched the assertion that vaccines can change your DNA. (That’s <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/jan/11/dna-fragments-in-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-wont-harm/">misleading and ignores evidence</a>). Social media posts poked fun at Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce for encouraging people to get vaccinated, asserting that the vaccine actually shuts off recipients’ hearts. (<a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/jan/29/instagram-posts/nfl-star-travis-kelces-heart-hand-gesture-isnt-a-s/">No, it doesn’t.</a>) And some people pointed to an American Red Cross blood donation questionnaire as evidence that shots are unsafe. <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/feb/28/instagram-posts/questionnaire-asking-blood-donors-vaccination-stat/">(We rated that False.)</a><br /><br />Experts say this misinformation has real-world effects.<br /><br />A Nov. 2023 survey by <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-dashboard/">KFF found that only 57% of Americans</a> “say they are very or somewhat confident” in COVID-19 vaccines. And those who distrust them are more likely to identify as politically conservative: Thirty-six percent of Republicans compared with 84% of Democrats say they are very or somewhat confident in the vaccine.<br /><br />Immunization rates for routine vaccines for other conditions have also taken a hit. Measles had been eradicated for more than 20 years in the U.S. but there have been recent outbreaks in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/kids-health/florida-measles-cases-rise-experts-oppose-state-surgeon-generals-decis-rcna140000">states including Florida</a>, <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/maryland-and-ohio-confirm-new-measles-cases">Maryland and Ohio</a>. Florida’s surgeon general has expressed <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/oct/13/why-analysis-covid-19-vaccines-floridas-surgeon-ge/">skepticism</a> about vaccines and <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/mar/18/fact-checking-floridas-surgeon-general-covid-19-va/">rejected</a> <a href="https://www.wusf.org/politics-issues/2024-02-23/ladapo-criticized-over-measles-memo-that-contradicts-cdc-guidance">guidance</a> from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about how to contain potentially deadly disease spread.<br /><br />The vaccination rate among kindergarteners has declined from 95% in the 2019-20 school year to 93% in 2022-23, according to the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7245a2.htm?s_cid=mm7245a2_w">CDC</a>. Public health officials have set a 95% vaccination rate target to prevent and reduce the risk of disease outbreaks. The CDC also found <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/routine-childhood-vaccination-rates-kindergartners-lower-pre-pandemic/story?id=104753746">exemptions had risen to 3%, the highest rate ever recorded</a> in the U.S.</blockquote><br /><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-57088878650614693522024-03-17T06:39:00.000-07:002024-03-17T06:39:45.565-07:00Declining Ranks of Irish Americans<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/03/17/the-fading-of-the-green/">In 2017, Drew DeSilver reported at Pew:</a><br /><blockquote>In 2015, <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17-ff05.html?intcmp=sldr1">32.7 million Americans</a>, or one-in-ten, identified themselves as being of <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/03/irish-americans.html">Irish ancestry</a>, making it the second-largest ancestry group in the U.S. after Germans. In addition, nearly 3 million Americans claimed Scotch-Irish ancestry, or just under 1% of the entire population. (The Scotch-Irish were mainly Ulster <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/03/non-catholic-irish-americans.html">Protestants</a> <a href="http://www.ulsterscotssociety.com/about_the-great.html">who migrated</a> to the British colonies in the decades before independence, while Irish Catholics didn’t begin arriving in large numbers until the 1840s.) By comparison, the <a href="http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpr/censusofpopulation2016-preliminaryresults/">Republic of Ireland</a> and <a href="http://www.nisra.gov.uk/population_clock/ClockText.html">Northern Ireland</a> have a combined population of about 6.6 million. </blockquote><blockquote>The ranks of both <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/03/irish-american-heritage-month.html">Irish</a> and Scotch-Irish Americans have fallen a lot in the past two-and-a-half decades, and the trend does not appear likely to reverse. Two decades ago, in 1990, 38.7 million Americans (15.6% of the total population) claimed Irish ancestry, and 5.6 million (2.3%) identified as Scotch-Irish.<br /><br />Both ancestral groups are older than the U.S. population as a whole. In 2013, the median age of those claiming Irish ancestry was 40.5, and 52.1 for those of Scotch-Irish ancestry, versus a median age of 37.8 for the entire population. Nor are the <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2017/03/cultural-cluelessness-fake-quotations.html">Irish</a> immigrating to the U.S. in anything close to the numbers they used to: In fiscal 2015, according to <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2015/table10">Department of Homeland Security</a> statistics, just 1,607 Irish-born people obtained legal permanent residency.</blockquote><p><a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2024/irish-american-heritage.html#:~:text=30.7%20million%20or%209.2%25,claimed%20Irish%20ancestry%20in%202022.">The trend has continued. From the Census</a>:</p><a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDP1Y2022.DP02?q=DP02&tid=ACSDP1Y2021.DP02"></a><blockquote><a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDP1Y2022.DP02?q=DP02&tid=ACSDP1Y2021.DP02">30.7 million or 9.2%</a> The number and percentage of U.S. residents who claimed Irish ancestry in 2022. Source: <a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDP1Y2022.DP02?q=DP02&tid=ACSDP1Y2021.DP02">2022 American Community Survey 1-year estimates</a><br /><br /><a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2022.B05006?q=B05006&tid=ACSDT1Y2021.B05006">112,251</a> The number of foreign-born U.S. residents who reported Ireland as their birthplace in 2022. Source: <a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2022.B05006?q=B05006&tid=ACSDT1Y2021.B05006">2022 American Community Survey 1-year estimates</a></blockquote><p><a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/2023_0818_plcy_yearbook_lawful_permanent_residents_fy2022.xlsx">And in fiscal 2022,</a> the number of Irish people obtaining legal permanent residency was just 1,407. </p><p><br /></p><p> </p><a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2022.B05006?q=B05006&tid=ACSDT1Y2021.B05006"></a><br /><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-77851939958244536272024-03-16T07:36:00.000-07:002024-03-16T07:36:57.284-07:00Prosecutors and Appearances<p><br /></p><p><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/08/j6-indictment.html">Many</a> <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/06/jack-smith-statement.html">posts</a> have <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/06/jack-smith-statement.html">discussed</a> <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2018/05/rosenstein-on-justice.html">prosecutors</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/judge-scott-mcafee-fani-willis-trump-rcna143674"> Jessica Levinson at MSNBC:</a></p><blockquote>Appearances matter when it comes to members of our government, and perhaps even more so when it comes to criminal prosecutors. This is why Fulton County, Georgia,<a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/judge-mcafee-fani-willis-trump-georgia-ruling-rcna143230"> Judge Scott McAfee ruled Friday morning</a> that while <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/deadline-legal-blog/fani-willis-disqualification-ruling-trump-georgia-rcna141742">there is not an actual conflict of interest preventing District Attorney Fani Willis</a> from pursuing the election interference case against former President Donald Trump, there is the appearance of one. <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/judge-mcafee-fani-willis-trump-georgia-ruling-rcna143230">McAfee therefore ordered</a> either Willis or Nathan Wade, her appointed special assistant district attorney and former boyfriend, off the case.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/nathan-wade-steps-down-from-trump-election-interference-case-in-georgia-206685765715">Wade stepped down Friday afternoon</a>.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/judge-mcafee-fani-willis-trump-georgia-ruling-rcna143230">McAfee’s ruling is a strong rebuke of Willis</a>, of the lack of judgment she exercised in this instance and of her conduct. And that’s only appropriate. <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/deadline-legal-blog/fani-willis-relationship-prosecutor-nathan-wade-rcna137020">She fell short</a> of acting in a way that acknowledges the enormous responsibility that she has been entrusted with. And McAfee was right to tell her so.</blockquote><br /><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-16361574855005758462024-03-15T19:06:00.000-07:002024-03-15T19:06:12.889-07:00Working Class Lawmakers<a href="https://stateline.org/2024/03/15/working-class-people-rarely-have-a-seat-at-the-legislative-table-in-state-capitols/">Robbie Sequeira at Stateline:</a><blockquote>Just 116 of the nearly 7,400 <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/11/the-decline-of-electoral-competition.html">state legislators</a> in the United States come from <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2018/09/wealth-and-inequality.html">working-class</a> backgrounds, <a href="https://today.duke.edu/2024/02/less-2-percent-state-legislators-are-working-class">according to </a><a href="https://today.duke.edu/2024/02/less-2-percent-state-legislators-are-working-class">a </a><a href="https://today.duke.edu/2024/02/less-2-percent-state-legislators-are-working-class">bi</a><a href="https://today.duke.edu/2024/02/less-2-percent-state-legislators-are-working-class">ennial study</a> conducted by Nicholas Carnes and Eric Hansen, political scientists at Duke University and Loyola University Chicago, respectively.<br /><br />The researchers <a href="https://today.duke.edu/2024/02/less-2-percent-state-legislators-are-working-class">define legislators as “working class”</a> if they currently or last worked in manual labor, service industry, clerical or labor union jobs. They found that 1.6% of state lawmakers meet that definition, compared with 50% of U.S. workers. Only about 2% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans qualified as <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2018/11/the-working-class-religion-and.html">working class</a>.<br /><br />Ten states — Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia — have no working-class state lawmakers.<br /><br />The dearth of working-class legislators raises concerns that economic challenges such as wage stagnation and the rising cost of living will get short shrift in state capitols.</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-90516532413493696962024-03-14T08:54:00.000-07:002024-03-14T08:54:30.442-07:00Myths and Misinformation About the Measles Vaccine<div><a href="https://www.kff.org/other/poll-finding/measles-vaccines-and-misinformation-in-the-courts-a-snapshot-from-the-kff-health-misinformation-tracking-poll/">Measles Vaccines and Misinformation in the Courts: A Snapshot From the KFF Health Misinformation Tracking Poll Audrey Kearney, Ashley Kirzinger, Shannon Schumacher, Isabelle Valdes, and Liz Hamel</a></div><div><a href="https://www.kff.org/other/poll-finding/measles-vaccines-and-misinformation-in-the-courts-a-snapshot-from-the-kff-health-misinformation-tracking-poll/">Published: Mar 14, 2024</a></div><blockquote> While most of the public correctly view the <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/04/measles-and-antivax-movement.html">false claim</a> that “<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/03/antivaxxers.html">The measles vacc</a>ine is more dangerous than the disease itself” as false, the findings echo <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-health-misinformation-tracking-poll-pilot/">previous KFF research</a> showing that a majority express at least some uncertainty in their beliefs related to health claims. More than half of U.S. adults say this claim is either “probably false” (41%) or “probably true” (16%). Few (3%) say it is “definitely true” while four in ten (38%) are confident that the claim is “definitely false.”<br /><br />Across partisans, levels of educational attainment, and race and ethnicity, fewer than five percent of adults say the claim is “definitely true,” meaning there are few ardent believers of this piece of misinformation. <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">However, independents (37%) and Republicans (21%) are less likely than Democrats (59%) to be certain that the claim is “definitely false.” Those without a college degree (29%) are also less likely to say that the claim is definitely false than those with a college degree (55%).</span><br /><br />While few adults say that this piece of misinformation is true, the public is split between saying it is “probably false” (41%) or “definitely false” (38%). Parents of children under age 18 are especially likely to say that this piece of information is “probably false” (50%). Having such a sizable group lean towards the correct answer, but be uncertain, may present an opportunity for intervention. Clear, accurate messaging from <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-health-misinformation-tracking-poll-pilot/">trusted sources</a>, such as pediatricians, regarding the safety of the <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/12/infectious-diseases-are-back.html">measles</a> vaccine may solidify the public’s — and parents’ — correct inclination that the measles vaccine is not more dangerous than contracting the disease. This would allow parents to be more confident in their decisions when it comes to vaccinating their young children.</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-57632692489374178182024-03-13T08:59:00.000-07:002024-03-13T08:59:51.567-07:00Congressional Capacity<p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">A </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/07/the-state-of-congress.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">number</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> of </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/12/modernizing-congress.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have discussed </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/09/brain-drain-on-hill.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">congressional</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2016/12/is-congress-broken.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">capacity</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">. </span> Despite large increases in federal spending and administrative rulemaking, <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/05/crs-troubles.html">Congress now has less capacity</a> to oversee the executive than it did decades ago.</p><p><br /></p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Congress has fewer committee staff and nonpartisan wonks to help it than it did in 1990. <br /><br />Source: <a href="https://t.co/MK5SK2rZSM">https://t.co/MK5SK2rZSM</a> <a href="https://t.co/5l9dNU8mu0">pic.twitter.com/5l9dNU8mu0</a></p>— Kevin R Kosar (@kevinrkosar) <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinrkosar/status/1767878775100809281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-28553102390453112962024-03-12T09:36:00.000-07:002024-03-12T09:36:16.218-07:00LGBTQ Americans<p><a href="https://www.prri.org/research/views-on-lgbtq-rights-in-all-50-states/"> From the Public Religion Research Institute</a>:</p><blockquote>Throughout 2023, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of its American Values Atlas, allowing for the ability to provide a detailed profile of the demographic, religious, and political characteristics of LGBTQ Americans. As in years past, this analysis measures Americans’ attitudes on LGBTQ rights across all 50 states on three key policies: nondiscrimination protections, religiously based service refusals, and<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/12/getting-gop-support-for-marriage-bill.html"> same-sex marriage</a>. This year’s report also includes new analysis of the intersection between Christian nationalist views and LGBTQ attitudes in each state.<br /><br />LGBTQ Americans skew younger, more Democratic, and less religious than other Americans.<div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">More than one in five young Americans (18-29 years) identify as LGBTQ (22%).</span> One in ten people ages 30-49 (10%), 6% of people between 50 and 64 years, and 3% of people 65 years or older identify as LGBTQ. Twenty-four percent of Gen Z Americans (aged 18 to 25) identify as LGBTQ.</li><li><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">A plurality of LGBTQ Americans are Democrats (46%); nearly six in ten LGBTQ Americans consider themselves liberal politically (58%).</span></li><li>The majority of LGBTQ Americans identify as religiously unaffiliated (52%), nearly twice the rate of the general U.S. population (27%). More than a third of LGBTQ Americans identify with a Christian faith (35%) and 5% belong to non-Christian religions.</li></ul>LGBTQ identification and support for LGBTQ rights differ by state.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Geographically, the proportion of residents who identify as LGBTQ ranges from 4% in both Alabama and South Carolina, respectively, to 16% in New Mexico</span>.</li><li>Since 2016, LGBTQ identification among those under 30 has increased by about 15 percentage points in blue states and battleground states (from 10% to 25% and from 9% to 23%, respectively) and by more than ten percentage points in red states (from 9% to 20%).</li><li>More than seven in ten residents of red (71%), battleground (75%), and blue (79%) states favor nondiscrimination laws; however, residents of blue states are far more likely to strongly favor LGBTQ nondiscrimination laws compared with their red state counterparts (43% v. 34%).</li><li>Opposition to religious refusals is lowest among red state residents (54%) while two-thirds (66%) of residents in blue states oppose service refusals; 58% of residents in battleground states oppose such refusals.</li><li>While majorities across almost all states <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/06/support-for-same-sex-marriage.html">support same-sex marriage rights</a>, there is wide variation across the country. In states where same-sex marriage would continue to be legal if the <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2015/06/supreme-court-on-same-sex-marriage.html">Supreme Court’s 2015 Obergefell decision</a> were overturned, 72% of people favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally compared with 64% in states where same-sex marriage would no longer be legal if Obergefell were overturned.</li></ul>Strong majorities of Americans — including <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/07/losing-my-religion.html">most people of faith</a> — support <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/06/bostock-v-clayton-county.html">nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ individuals</a>, but overall support has declined.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>More than three-quarters of Americans supported policies that protect LGBTQ Americans from discrimination in housing, employment, and public accommodation (76%) in 2023, a decline from a high of 80% the previous year, in 2022.</li><li>While support for nondiscrimination protections among Democrats stayed steady from 2022 to 2023, support dropped among Republicans by seven percentage points (from 66% to 59%).</li><li>Many religious groups — though not all — registered small drops in support for nondiscrimination protections in the past year.</li><li>Americans aged 18-29 show a gradual decrease in support for LGBTQ nondiscrimination laws over the last three years, declining from a peak of 83% in 2020 to 75% in 2023.</li></ul>Opposition to religiously based service refusals dropped five percentage points in the past year, from 65% in 2022 to 60% in 2023.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>A majority (59%) of independents and more than eight in ten Democrats (82%) oppose allowing small business owners to refuse service to LGBTQ people based on their religious beliefs; opposition to such refusals has declined among Republicans, from 40% in 2015 to just 34% in 2023.</li><li>A majority of members of most religious groups oppose religiously based service refusals; however, just 30% of white evangelical Protestants oppose religiously based service refusals, down from 37% in 2022.</li></ul>Support for same-sex marriage has declined among Americans in the last year, dropping from 69% to 67%.Majorities of most religious traditions favor allowing same-sex couples to marry legally. Yet some religious groups show a decline in support from the last year, including Hispanic Catholics, whose support declined from 75% in 2022 to 68% in 2023.<br />Fewer than half of Latter-day Saints, Hispanic Protestants, white evangelical Protestants, Muslims, and Jehovah’s Witnesses support same-sex marriage.<br />Older Americans are less supportive of same-sex marriage than younger Americans. However, support among young Americans (18-29) has seen a gradual decline since 2018, when 79% of young Americans supported this right, to 71% today.<br /><br /> LGBTQ rights drive voting decisions of Democrats more than Republicans, younger Americans more than older Americans.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>A plurality of Americans (38%) say that LGBTQ rights is one of various factors they will consider, 30% say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on this issue, and 29% say they do not see LGBTQ rights as a major issue.</li><li>A plurality of young Americans (38%) and members of Gen Z (38%) say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on LGBTQ rights.</li><li>Democrats are the most likely to say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on this issue (38%), compared with Republicans (29%) and independents (25%).</li></ul><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/02/christian-nationalism-survey.html">Christian nationalism</a> Rejecters are more likely to support LGBTQ rights than Skeptics, Sympathizers, or Adherents.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/11/speaker-johnson-and-christian.html">Christian nationalism</a> Rejecters are nearly unanimous (93%) in their support for laws that protect LGBTQ people from discrimination in housing, employment, and accommodation, including more than seven in ten (72%) who strongly favor nondiscrimination laws. Only among Christian nationalism Adherents does a majority (52%) oppose nondiscrimination laws.</li><li>Just 32% of Christian nationalism Adherents oppose allowing religiously based refusals compared with 85% of Christian nationalism Rejecters.</li><li>Just 22% of <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/10/speaker-johnson-and-christian.html">Christian nationalism</a> Adherents support same-sex marriage, compared with 93% of Christian nationalism Rejecters.</li></ul>Across all 50 states, scatter plots show a clear pattern: support for Christian nationalism is negatively correlated with support for the three policies discussed in this report.</div></blockquote><div></div><div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-6239588157356796762024-03-11T05:24:00.000-07:002024-03-11T05:24:28.911-07:00Society for American Civic Renewal<p><a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/inside-a-secret-society-of-prominent-right-wing-christian-men-prepping-for-a-national-divorce">Josh Kovensky at TPM:</a></p><blockquote> A secret, men-only right-wing society with members in influential positions around the country is on a crusade: to recruit a<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/02/christian-nationalism-survey.html"> Christian governmen</a>t that will form after the right achieves regime change in the United States, potentially via a “<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/02/russia-disinformation-and-secession.html">national divorce</a>.” <br /><br />It sounds like the stuff of fantasy, but it’s real. The group is called the Society for American Civic Renewal (the acronym is pronounced “sacker” by its members). It is open to new recruits, provided you meet a few criteria: you are male,<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/10/speaker-johnson-and-christian.html"> a “trinitarian” Christian,</a> heterosexual, an “un-hyphenated American,” and can answer questions about Trump, the Republican Party, and <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/11/speaker-johnson-and-christian.html">Christian Nationalism</a> in the right way. One chapter leader wrote to a prospective member that the group aimed to “secure a future for Christian families.”</blockquote><blockquote>...<br /><br /> TPM first began reporting on SACR in January. Though the group’s membership rolls are secret, some of its activities are out in the open. It maintains a <a href="https://sacr.us/">website</a>, all in crimson, in which it advertises its “mark,” and calls on members to rebuild the “frontier-conquering spirit of America.” <br /><br />An early reporting breakthrough came when we were able to identify a Boise State University professor and Claremont official named Scott Yenor as a possible member of SACR because he appeared on incorporation papers for the group’s Boise lodge. Yenor is a character in his own right, attracting public attention for a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/scott-yenor-sexism-women-protest-idaho-b1972250.html">November 2021 blow-up when he suggested</a> that elite professions like law and medicine stop recruiting women into their ranks. <br /><br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Because Boise State is a public university, TPM was able to obtain via public records requests in January and February a trove of Yenor’s office emails that mention SACR</span>. The trove included internal SACR correspondence, documents, and other materials from when the group was first being conceived in late 2020, was founded the following year, and began to grow. <br /><br />The trove reveals SACR’s core mission: to create a mini-state within a state, composed entirely of Protestant, Catholic, and Orthodox <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/10/christian-nation-survey.html">Christian men</a>. It’s explicitly patriarchal, demanding that group members assume a dominant role at home, and celebrates the use of force and existence of authority. Amid all the hearkening back to the founding fathers, America’s first principles, and patriotism, there are few mentions of democracy in the materials TPM reviewed.<br /><br />Using the Yenor email trove as a starting point, TPM was able to confirm that Yenor is a SACR member, to identify other members of SACR, including prominent people like the president of the Claremont Institute, and to map other chapters of SACR around the country and locate incorporation papers for them, which yielded the identities of other potential SACR members. </blockquote><div><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-31625066734562720562024-03-10T07:55:00.000-07:002024-03-10T07:55:01.492-07:00Raw Milk<div><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2015/06/polarization-trolls-and-confirmation.html" style="background-color: white; color: #c5224d; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Many posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2017/06/republicans-and-democrats-dislike-each.html" style="color: #c5224d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">discussed</a> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2015/12/negative-partisanship.html" style="background-color: white; color: #c5224d; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">partisan polarization</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>After a long effort, an Iowa legislator won approval of a bill to legalize the sale of raw milk.<a href="Marc Novicoff "> Marc Novicoff at Politico:</a></div><blockquote> What changed since 2008 is a vivid example of a larger upheaval in American politics. <a href="https://www.fda.gov/food/buy-store-serve-safe-food/dangers-raw-milk-unpasteurized-milk-can-pose-serious-health-risk">The Food and Drug Administration</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/rawmilk/raw-milk-questions-and-answers.html">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a> still say raw milk is dangerous and the state dairy lobby <a href="https://www.legis.iowa.gov/lobbyist/reports/declarations?ga=90&ba=SF315">sent lobbyists to the Iowa Capitol</a> to defeat Schultz’s bill. But Iowa has flipped — it’s a Republican state now, from the presidential vote to the governor’s office to the near-supermajority Legislature — and that flip has occurred alongside even larger shifts in national politics, spurred on by the rise of Donald Trump. With Trump has come a new GOP electorate, one more rural, more working class, less ideological and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor">generally more distrustful</a> of lobbyists, big business and “the experts.” And that has been a big help for a cause that is bucking just about every one of those groups.</blockquote><blockquote>Long a fringe health food for new-age <a href="https://www.eater.com/2010/7/26/6725345/police-raid-raw-milk-hippie-club-for-your-health">hippies</a> and fad-chasing liberal foodies, raw milk has won over the hearts and minds of GOP legislators and regulators in the last few years. (The Iowa vote broke almost perfectly along party lines with nearly all Republicans in favor and only a handful of Democrats defecting to their side.) And it’s not just in Iowa. <a href="https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/agriculture/following-new-montana-law-nonprofits-teach-raw-milk-safety/article_ac2a60ee-35dd-11ed-a0aa-27b833a44b20.html">Montana</a>, <a href="https://www.ndda.nd.gov/news/raw-milk-sales-now-legal-limited-fluid-milk">North Dakota</a>, <a href="https://aws.state.ak.us/OnlinePublicNotices/Notices/View.aspx?id=210087">Alaska</a>, <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/05/04/georgia-dairy-farmers-can-sell-unpasteurized-milk-starting-next-year">Georgia</a> and <a href="https://wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2023/SF0102">Wyoming</a> all have passed laws (or changed regulations) since 2020 legalizing the sale of raw milk on farms or in stores.</blockquote><p><a href="http://www.autismpolicyblog.com/2021/10/vaccines-and-republicans.html">The antivax movement has followed a similar trajectory</a>: from crunchy left to Trumpy right.</p><p><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=oupUDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA56&dq=nixon+%22raw+milk%22+brothers&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj2sMKP9-mEAxUoQzABHTzGDqsQ6AF6BAgKEAI#v=onepage&q=nixon%20%22raw%20milk%22%20brothers&f=false">Richard Nixon's father insisted on raw milk. Nixon believed that it caused the diseases that killed his brothers Harold and Arthur</a>. </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-30271469771255978742024-03-09T06:25:00.000-08:002024-03-09T06:25:37.689-08:00Budget Infographic, Fiscal 2023<p> <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/02/why-debt-matters.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">Many posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/02/30-trillion-debt.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">discussed</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> federal </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/07/budget-update.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">deficits</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> and the </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/05/debt-pay-now-or-pay-more-later.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">federal debt</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-03/59727-Federal-Budget.pdf">From CBO</a>:<p></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi23HhHIOYQmz-gg-sY0srFkeLJKqCXz27q4Y0Xl-iDYyPL3ntbMHc7f_FoR7JvvLwv9XKHbs9h2G9pF6_JGtwAAfgCSGr6qfJU8FHjzje9QCug02bHU5IZKFkuRUCO2-CMXRaJmju9B2SEqFZl4Aymum5EX4AXxi-BvbB7TGXuaWAQA6OQxj9MvF2f027-" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1100" data-original-width="1650" height="427" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi23HhHIOYQmz-gg-sY0srFkeLJKqCXz27q4Y0Xl-iDYyPL3ntbMHc7f_FoR7JvvLwv9XKHbs9h2G9pF6_JGtwAAfgCSGr6qfJU8FHjzje9QCug02bHU5IZKFkuRUCO2-CMXRaJmju9B2SEqFZl4Aymum5EX4AXxi-BvbB7TGXuaWAQA6OQxj9MvF2f027-=w640-h427" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-53240468218750249112024-03-07T09:43:00.000-08:002024-03-07T09:43:51.826-08:00Perceptions of the Economy<p><a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/mar/06/why-do-so-many-americans-think-the-economy-is-bad/"> Louis Jacobson at PolitiFact:</a></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 2rem; margin-top: 0px;"></p><blockquote>The biggest albatross for Biden’s economy is <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/09/college-debt-and-wealth.html">inflation</a>. <br /><br />Year-over-year inflation peaked around 9% — a four-decade high — <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/01/inflation-redux.html">in summer 2022</a>. It has fallen to about 3% in recent months, closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Economists generally attribute the peak inflation to supply chain problems that emerged during the pandemic; this was exacerbated by fiscal stimulus legislation signed by Biden shortly after he took office.<br /><br />Americans "want these prices to be back where they were before the pandemic," Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook <a href="https://apnews.com/article/economy-inflation-prices-jobs-income-recession-unemployment-e9e96643d8a1eb3ab2f57810219b8324">said</a> in a November speech at Duke University.<br /><br />The problem is that, by nature, inflation doesn’t act that way. When inflation slows, as it has for a year and a half, it doesn’t produce lower prices. Rather, prices climb more slowly, allowing wage increases to catch up.<br /><br />Americans have noticed that food prices are <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/feb/13/donald-trump/donald-trump-exaggerates-rise-in-food-prices-under/">up 20%</a> on Biden’s watch.<br /><br />"Most people <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/08/dollar-store-america-v-whole-foods.html">shop for groceries</a> every week, making those prices particularly salient," A. Lee Hannah, a Wright State University political scientist who has <a href="https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/political_science/34/">written about</a> consumers’ views of the economy, told PolitiFact.<br /><br />Another weekly ritual is a trip to the gas station. Although gasoline prices have fallen substantially from their summer 2022 peak, they remain about 30% higher than when Biden took office<span style="color: #414246; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: 20px;">.</span></span></blockquote><span style="color: #414246; font-family: merriweather, georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"></span></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-6897188235215205332024-03-06T05:48:00.000-08:002024-03-06T05:48:40.761-08:00The Diploma Divide in Wages<div><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/12/covid-and-deaths-of-despair.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">Many</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/12/college-america-and-non-college-america.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/04/shrinking-middle-class.html" style="color: #224dc5; text-decoration-line: none;">have </a></span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/11/blue-inequality.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">discussed</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b00fe; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/10/concentrated-ownership-of-stock.html" style="color: #224dc5; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">economi</a></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">c and <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/07/inequality-and-path-to-phd.html" style="color: #224dc5; text-decoration-line: none;">educationa</a>l</span> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/08/dollar-store-america-v-whole-foods.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">inequality</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">. The <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/08/life-expectancy-drops-again.html" style="color: #224dc5; text-decoration-line: none;">effects</a> of <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/06/fathers.html" style="color: #224dc5; text-decoration-line: none;">inequality</a> reach many <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/05/two-covid-americas.html" style="color: #224dc5; text-decoration-line: none;">corners</a> of American life. <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/06/college-inequality.html">There is a big divide</a> between people with college degrees and people without.</span></div><div><br /></div><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/03/04/college-graduates-median-annual-wage-difference">Emily Peck at Axios:</a><br /><blockquote>Yes, college is still worth it: The <a href="https://www.axios.com/2018/07/31/minorities-unequal-value-college-education">wage gap</a> between recent college and high school grads has been widening for decades, and grew even more last year, per <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment">new Federal Reserve data</a>.<br /><br />Why it matters: Even so, Americans are falling out of love with the idea of a four-year degree.Confidence in the value of a college education, a cornerstone of the American dream, is falling, per polling from <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/508352/americans-confidence-higher-education-down-sharply.aspx">Gallup</a> and the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-are-losing-faith-in-college-education-wsj-norc-poll-finds-3a836ce1">Wall Street Journal</a>.<br /><br />Reality check: Economic data show clearly that a college degree gives individuals a lifetime earnings edge — and other benefits. Despite what you've heard about <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/22/fed-artificial-intelligence-jobs">AI stealing our jobs</a>, the U.S. economy needs educated workers to grow and flourish: how else would that AI get developed?<br /><br />Zoom in: In 2023, recent college grads age 22-27 working full-time earned $24,000 more per year than 22-27 year olds with only a high school degree. Back in 1990 the gap was $15,000, according to the numbers tracked by the NYFed.<br /></blockquote><blockquote>To put that in perspective, by their early 20s the high-school degree workers likely have many more years of work experience than the new college grads — yet they're still getting out-earned.<br /><br />Yes but: That gap is just the beginning. The wage premium goes on to double over a worker's lifetime, according to research economist David Deming <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60832ecef615231cedd30911/t/648782a74c77dd494b02c789/1686602408024/Deming_OJL_June2023.pdf">published</a> last year.He was able to follow a group of college-educated workers through their working lives. At age 25 these folks had a 27% premium over high school only graduates. By age 55, that premium was 60%.<br />"It's malpractice to tell a young person that a college degree isn't necessary anymore," says, Deming, who is a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School.<br /><br />Follow the money: A lot of research, surveys and news articles evaluate the worth of a degree for recent graduates — but the value of college education accrues over a workers' lifetime.</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-24869646404094774422024-03-05T09:42:00.000-08:002024-03-05T09:42:28.046-08:00Opt-In Polls<p><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2018/01/response-rates.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;"> Many </a><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2012/05/survey-response-rates.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2014/10/survey-response-rates-and-turnout.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">discussed</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> the </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/03/phone-survey-response-rates.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">problems</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> of </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2015/07/survey-nonresponse.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">surveying</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2015/06/polling-problems.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">public opinion</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> in the 21st century.</span></p><p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/">Andrew Mercer at al. at Pew:</a></p><p></p><blockquote>Online opt-in polls have become <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/">increasingly popular</a>. And for some purposes, such as election polling, they can <a href="https://medium.com/3streams/revisiting-the-gold-standard-of-polling-new-methods-outperformed-traditional-ones-in-2020-451650a9ba5b">perform similarly</a> to more traditional survey approaches.<br /><br />There is evidence, however, that the online environment in which they operate is somewhat unstable.<br /><br />In particular, several recent studies have documented large errors in online opt-in surveys due to the presence of so-called <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/02/18/assessing-the-risks-to-online-polls-from-bogus-respondents/">“bogus respondents.”</a> These respondents do not answer questions sincerely; instead, they attempt to complete surveys with as little effort as possible to earn money or other rewards.<br /><br />Studies have shown that bogus respondents can cause opt-in surveys to overestimate rare attitudes and behaviors, such as <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.11.20246694v3">ingesting bleach</a> to protect against COVID-19, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3131087">belief in conspiracies</a> like Pizzagate or <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2116870119">support for political violence</a>.<br /><br />At Pew Research Center, we’ve found that this type of overreporting tends to be especially concentrated in estimates for adults under 30, as well as Hispanic adults. Bogus respondents may be identifying this way in order to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-experimental-political-science/article/fraud-in-online-surveys-evidence-from-a-nonprobability-subpopulation-sample/52CCFB8B9FEFC4C11155BE256F6D9116">bypass screening questions</a> that might otherwise prevent them from receiving a reward, though the precise reasons are difficult to pin down. Whatever the underlying cause, the result can be unreliable estimates for those groups.<br /><br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">For example, in a February 2022 survey experiment, we asked opt-in respondents if they were <a href="https://washstat.org/hansen/2022Kennedy.pdf">licensed to operate a class SSGN (nuclear) submarine</a>. In the opt-in survey, 12% of adults under 30 claimed this qualification, significantly higher than the share among older respondents. In reality, the share of Americans with this type of submarine license rounds to 0%<span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">.</span></span></blockquote><span style="background-color: white; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"></span><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-67343183059409447262024-03-04T05:46:00.000-08:002024-03-04T05:46:18.224-08:00The Fiscal Future Is Not Bright<div><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/02/why-debt-matters.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">Many posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/02/30-trillion-debt.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">discussed</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> federal </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/07/budget-update.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">deficits</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> and the </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/05/debt-pay-now-or-pay-more-later.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">federal debt</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">.</span></div><div><br /></div><a href="https://www.aei.org/economics/another-sobering-view-of-the-fiscal-condition-of-the-federal-government/">Mark J. Warshawsky at AEI:</a><br /><blockquote>Last week, the Treasury Department released, with no fanfare, the massive <a href="https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/current-report.html">Financial Report (FR) of the US Government</a>. Using an <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/accrual-accounting.asp">accrual accounting basis, rather than a cash basis</a>, the FR shows a much poorer picture of the current finances of the federal government than the conventional budget. Even its uniformly optimistic assumptions project a clearly unsustainable future for the federal government’s budget under current policy.<br /><br />The budget deficit under the conventional cash-basis terms increased from <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD">$1.4 trillion in 2022 to $1.7 trillion in 2023</a>, or about 6.2 percent of GDP, mainly because of some weakness in tax revenues owing to a lower stock market in the prior year and the drying up of transfers from the Federal Reserve owing to higher interest rates. The alternative measure presented in the FR of the net call added this year by the federal government on the future resources of its citizens is the net operating cost, which includes accruals of retirement, disability, and health benefits to federal employees and veterans. At $3.4 trillion in 2023, or an eighth of GDP, it was double the cash basis deficit. In 2019, the net operating cost of the federal government was “only” $1.4 trillion.<br /><br />Another way the FR presents the current financial status of the federal government is the net position— assets minus liabilities. In 2023, assets of $5.4 trillion include cash, inventory, loans receivable, as well as buildings, equipment, and general-purpose land. Liabilities of $42.9 trillion include federal debt held by the public of $26.3 trillion, or about 97 percent of GDP, and $14.3 trillion owed as an obligation for federal employee and veterans’ benefits payable. The net position of the federal government was thus negative $37.5 trillion in 2023, compared to $34.1 trillion in 2022. The worsening occurred mainly because debt outstanding increased by $2 trillion during the year.<br /><br />The FR also does projections over the next 75 years of the conventional federal government budget measures of cash deficits and debt outstanding. It characterizes the situation as “unsustainable.” <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">More specifically, it projects that the deficit will increase to 5.9 percent of GDP in 2028, 14.1 percent in 2047, 21.1 percent in 2070, and 29.1 percent by 2097. </span>The causes are a growing primary deficit due to increased spending for Social Security and Medicare on the retiring baby boom generation, peaking at 4.4 percent of GDP in 2043, but mainly from the rapidly and continually growing torrent of interest spending as debt outstanding growing faster than the economy must be serviced<span style="background-color: #fcff01;">. Indeed, debt as a share of GDP is projected to rise to 200 percent by 2047 and reach 531 percent by 2098.</span></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-53507325197694403912024-03-03T06:18:00.000-08:002024-03-03T06:18:09.434-08:00Data Visualization<p><a href="https://s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?trackId=596b01e7ade4e24119ac0bd0&s=65e33f3c4a1e5d3a0c6e71d1&linknum=2&linktot=68">Philip Bump at WP:</a></p><blockquote><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/01/research-2024.html">The Internet Archive</a> — which, to its credit, archives a lot more than just the stupid old internet — has in its collection of digitized books a tome called <a href="https://s2.washingtonpost.com/3ced492/65e33f3c4a1e5d3a0c6e71d1/596b01e7ade4e24119ac0bd0/9/68/">“Graphic Presentation” by one Willard C. Brinton</a>. And it is, without question, the most spectacular book of visualizations I’ve ever seen.<br /><br />This is probably one of those blind spots I have from not having been formally educated in <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/12/misleading-graphs-on-labor-force.html">graphic design</a>. (Philosophy major!) This book is probably on a bookshelf in every creative director’s office in Manhattan. I find it impossible to believe that this is not broadly sought after or cited, so I’m just going to believe it is.<br /><br />The book runs more than 500 pages, nearly all of which include the sort of vintage, hand-created visualizations that may me drool occasionally. And so let’s just jump into it, this lengthy-but-truncated exploration of the good stuff the book contains.</blockquote><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEghHK1fUtvAo6K0FKx24Ram7ziagNT7FF6NLvHYYXiSyCBPnZPyKMizb_7whhqIGXcBqdMRscj5k5lw_m98bN4LdGypJ-p91FNIZt7xkpn1VACKWAL9seiR8khcqO6nI43BrU-Vss7h9vyAHmriYLlQlm-0nvEMAYqPIwYDuozGK6DT4s8OudHBSwcswISA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1360" data-original-width="937" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEghHK1fUtvAo6K0FKx24Ram7ziagNT7FF6NLvHYYXiSyCBPnZPyKMizb_7whhqIGXcBqdMRscj5k5lw_m98bN4LdGypJ-p91FNIZt7xkpn1VACKWAL9seiR8khcqO6nI43BrU-Vss7h9vyAHmriYLlQlm-0nvEMAYqPIwYDuozGK6DT4s8OudHBSwcswISA=w441-h640" width="441" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-18429681617221042232024-03-02T07:40:00.000-08:002024-03-02T07:40:17.339-08:00Huge Increase in Migrant Population<div><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/11/undocumented-immigration-2017-2021.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">Many</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/05/fake-story-about-vets-and-migrants.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/05/immigrationa-and-asylum-2023.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">discussed</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/03/non-catholic-irish-americans.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">immigration</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><br /></span></div><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/03/02/data-biden-border-crisis-immigration-8-million-detention">Stef Kight at Axios:</a><br /><blockquote>More than 8 million <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/02/fiscal-impact-of-refugees-and-asylees.html">asylum seekers</a> and <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/02/migrant-encounters.html">other migrants</a> will be living inside the U.S <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/25/migrant-immigration-cost-city-budgets">in legal limbo</a> by the end of September — a roughly 167% increase in five years, according to internal government projections obtained by Axios.<br /><br />Why it matters: That's up from about 3 million in 2019 — a sign of how the underfunded and outdated U.S. immigration system can't keep up with the rapidly growing migrant population driven by new border surges.<br /><br />The backlog has left millions of people living in uncertainty about whether they'll be allowed to stay in the U.S. — or facing deportation — often for years.The data show that while the backlog has exploded as <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/joe-biden">President Biden</a> has struggled to deal with the unprecedented crush of migrants from around the world, millions already were in the U.S. during the <a href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump">Trump</a> administration.<br /><br />By the numbers: At the end of fiscal 2023 last Sept. 30, more than 6 million people were on what officials call the "non-detained docket."The government projects that will grow to 8 million by Oct. 1, according to Homeland Security documents sent to Congress.</blockquote><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-16116559120642502012024-03-01T10:14:00.000-08:002024-03-01T10:14:47.444-08:00Freedom in the World 2024<p><a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2024/mounting-damage-flawed-elections-and-armed-conflict#choosing-democracy-in-2024">From Freedom House:</a></p><p></p><blockquote><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/03/democratic-decline.html">Global freedom</a> declined for the 18th consecutive year in 2023. The <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/05/freedom-in-world.html">breadth and depth of the deterioration</a> were extensive. Political rights and <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/09/polarization-and-free-speech.html">civil libertie</a>s were diminished in 52 countries, while only 21 countries made improvements. Flawed elections and armed conflict contributed to the decline, <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2018/02/blowing-out-moral-lights-around-us.html">endangering freedom</a> and causing severe human suffering.</blockquote><p></p><p></p><blockquote><p></p><p>...</p><p> In the United States, harassment and intimidation of federal, state, and local politicians, election administrators, and judges pose a serious challenge to the conduct of November’s presidential election. Threats of violence can have far-reaching, harmful effects, potentially undermining compliance with election rules or deterring participation entirely. Actual violence related to political disputes can and has cost people their lives. Still haunted by the January 2021 attack on the Capitol and related court cases, Americans are heading into a decisive election starkly divided, with some questioning the very utility of fundamental democratic institutions.</p><p></p><p>The conduct of national elections in South Africa, India, and the United States, three of the most influential democracies in the world, will have rippm in authoritarian settings. But other electoral contests will also have important consequences.le effects across the globe, with implications for international trade, interstate relations, and movements for freedom.</p></blockquote><p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjTQUKEIutLpdcDPdTQq1ypP7jt43iN78ZPOJV5YUTb8Ub5Tw4mOTSfsCLqSQZKvv5EwCF03pdxxuULrOc9Y4D6Aa8ylUZen43HrRDBuZ4C7qaN1MNWcS8Lab98Lb6OKHGLgMT__C-r613bcFagwo2KY-cFjwViK9BUY7PW5yTiFex4bVr67xNtAp5AODM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1540" data-original-width="2250" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjTQUKEIutLpdcDPdTQq1ypP7jt43iN78ZPOJV5YUTb8Ub5Tw4mOTSfsCLqSQZKvv5EwCF03pdxxuULrOc9Y4D6Aa8ylUZen43HrRDBuZ4C7qaN1MNWcS8Lab98Lb6OKHGLgMT__C-r613bcFagwo2KY-cFjwViK9BUY7PW5yTiFex4bVr67xNtAp5AODM=w640-h438" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3lNtNqKFFz-xpa7OWInPupO_vWba1911rcSoO5U82ku4wFX_X7HUnUWxBjYMK4H016FpSpXI0wiMyd08AE7rA1JR6W-NQtYTpbLlVEZI7W697VftI7wv5whji3JDAgeUQgw83cTanymEyOCepelxJK4KiBLTFKfMRlaGOPDnTGmtRggtJl992FRsJwvhQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1540" data-original-width="2250" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3lNtNqKFFz-xpa7OWInPupO_vWba1911rcSoO5U82ku4wFX_X7HUnUWxBjYMK4H016FpSpXI0wiMyd08AE7rA1JR6W-NQtYTpbLlVEZI7W697VftI7wv5whji3JDAgeUQgw83cTanymEyOCepelxJK4KiBLTFKfMRlaGOPDnTGmtRggtJl992FRsJwvhQ=w640-h438" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p></p><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-22010844245838882452024-02-29T05:39:00.000-08:002024-02-29T05:39:32.789-08:00Support for Authoritarian Government<div>A <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/02/dictator-for-day.html">number</a> of <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/01/authoritarian-playbook.html">posts </a>have <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/01/democracy-attitudes-dissatisfaction-and.html">discussed</a> <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/10/support-for-violence-and.html">support</a> for <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/11/trumps-authoritarian-language.html">authoritarianism</a> and <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/07/support-for-political-violence_23.html">political violence</a> in the <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/09/bipartisan-anti-democratic-sentiment.html">United States</a>.</div><div><br /></div><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/28/who-likes-authoritarianism-and-how-do-they-want-to-change-their-government/">Laura Silver and Janell Fetterolf at Pew:</a><br /><blockquote>While most people see <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/02/28/representative-democracy-remains-a-popular-ideal-but-people-around-the-world-are-critical-of-how-its-working/">representative democracy as a good way to govern their country</a>, large shares of the public in many countries are open to nondemocratic alternatives.<br /><br />Indeed, a median of 31% across 24 nations are supportive of authoritarian systems, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/02/28/representative-democracy-remains-a-popular-ideal-but-people-around-the-world-are-critical-of-how-its-working/">according to a recent Pew Research Center survey</a>. The survey asked about two authoritarian models of government: a system in which a strong leader can make decisions without interference from parliament or the courts (“authoritarian leader”) and a system in which the military rules the country (“military rule”).</blockquote><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/28/who-likes-authoritarianism-and-how-do-they-want-to-change-their-government/sr_24-02-28_authoritarianism_1/"><img src="https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SR_24.02.28_authoritarianism_1.png?w=400" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-90255608250468862972024-02-28T05:58:00.000-08:002024-02-28T05:58:08.906-08:00Dodgeball and Deliberation <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/4489380-procedural-dodgeball-pits-house-majority-against-itself/">Don Wolfensberger at <i>The Hill</i>:</a><br /><blockquote>There was a time, in the not-too-distant past, when House members were drilled by their leaders at the beginning of a new <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/11/technological-expertise-and-congress.html">Congress</a> on three unwritten party rules they were expected obey without exception. First, always vote for your party’s nominee for Speaker; second, always support your party’s package of House rules proposed at the opening of a Congress; and, third, always vote for your party’s position on special rule resolutions from the Rules Committee that set the terms of debate and amendment on major legislation. The Rules Committee was known then, at least, as “the Speaker’s committee” because it reflected the leadership’s policy priorities and procedural means of considering them.<br /><br />For a small group of hard-right junior Republicans, all three of those rules were tossed out of the window as the beginning of this 118th Congress. They first balked at electing Rep. <a href="https://thehill.com/people/kevin-mccarthy/">Kevin McCarthy </a>(R-Calif.) as Speaker over the course of four days and 14 ballots until they had wrested from him certain concessions on House rules changes and processes they wanted him to adhere to.</blockquote><p></p><blockquote>... </blockquote><p></p><div><blockquote>In grappling for an appropriate analogy for this new procedural game in town, I finally settled on circle dodgeball, labeled here as “procedural dodgeball.” A large circle is drawn and, in the middle a smaller circle with five or so targets (or leaders). Around the perimeter are 20 or so throwers (rebels) on marked spots who try to eliminate the players in the middle by hitting them below the waist with dodge balls. Once all the center circle targets are eliminated, they switch places with a comparable number of throwers in the inner circle until they in turn are all removed. And back and forth it goes, between special rules and the suspension bills. </blockquote><blockquote>Unfortunately, all the players on the inner and outer circles are of the same party. The Democrats, on the other hand, are in the stands, cheering on both sides in their game of self-elimination, while providing sufficient votes on special rules to allow the handful of rebels to prevail in defeating those rules. </blockquote><blockquote>It’s difficult to predict when or whether all this will end. But it is a far cry from James Madison’s ideal of a Congress in which various competing factions overcome their hostilities and finally come together to act in the public interest after<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/12/civic-thought-and-deliberation.html"> extended deliberations</a> over the nature of the problems and its solution. <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/06/the-senates-deliberative-slump.html">Deliberation today is in short suppl</a>y. Performative, partisan point-making has replaced serious national lawmaking as the order of the day.</blockquote></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-87839973138234478732024-02-27T18:45:00.000-08:002024-02-27T18:45:51.289-08:00Engaging with Political Information<p><a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/who-voters-trust-election-information-2024/">From the Bipartisan Policy Center: </a></p><blockquote>Americans’ top three sources of election information are passive: Americans are more likely to learn about elections while scrolling social media or watching a news channel than proactively searching for election information.<br /><br />Additionally, a plurality (41%) of adults said the primary way they engage with election content on online platforms is through browsing or reading posts. Only a small subset engages through active forms of engagement, such as commenting (16%), sharing content (10%), or creating and posting their own content (6%).</blockquote><p><br /></p><div class="infogram-embed" data-id="55fc85fd-ef5e-479e-a26e-dbba422531bb" data-title="9" data-type="interactive"></div><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d="InfogramEmbeds";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,"script","infogram-async","https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js");</script>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-44872028526244348002024-02-26T06:39:00.000-08:002024-02-26T06:39:50.651-08:00The Graying of America, 21st Century<p><a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59899"> CBO</a>:</p><blockquote>The size of the <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/01/population-and-political-trends.html">U.S. population</a>, as well as its age and sex composition, has significant implications for the economy and the federal budget. For example, the number of people ages 25 to 54 affects the number of people employed, and the number of people age 65 or older affects the number of Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries.<br /><br />In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its population projections, which underlie the agency’s baseline budget projections and economic forecast that will be published in early 2024.</blockquote><div><br /></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Population. In CBO’s projections, the Social Security area population—the relevant population for estimating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits and the measure of population used in this report—increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. As growth of the population<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/05/census-aging-america.html"> age 65 or olde</a>r outpaces growth of younger age groups, <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/07/changing-demographics.html">the population continues to become older, on average</a>.</li><li>Population Growth. Population growth <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/12/slowest-population-growth-since-founding.html">generally slows</a> over the next 30 years, from 0.6 percent per year, on average, between 2024 and 2034 to 0.2 percent per year, on average, between 2045 and 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth and accounts for all population growth beginning in 2040, in part because fertility rates remain below the rate that would be required for a generation to replace itself in the absence of immigration.</li><li>Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population. The civilian noninstitutionalized population—which consists of people age 16 or older who are not members of the armed forces on active duty and who are not in penal or mental institutions or in homes for the elderly or infirm—grows from 271 million people in 2024 to 310 million people in 2054, expanding by 0.4 percent per year, on average. The number of people ages 25 to 54 (who are more likely to work than people in other age groups) grows at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent over that period—more slowly than in recent decades.</li></ul><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTrlmsNyy_KZ_FNU9Vz7_V-Z0qG1-mqWGKefVTz58KbsRKphHb4P6LNducxgPFU4OnnwgtiUgOmQ4IaK_2tLpYEW5jeh3AI-TZ4Zdv2vn_ujln9McAlJt2Zbq8isrS901VwDTjPmXp7m3xeJF0FagjRrjE03dndnm0IMiP7Abt7-rQ2ypN5PH6x6Vt5cwr" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="637" data-original-width="825" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTrlmsNyy_KZ_FNU9Vz7_V-Z0qG1-mqWGKefVTz58KbsRKphHb4P6LNducxgPFU4OnnwgtiUgOmQ4IaK_2tLpYEW5jeh3AI-TZ4Zdv2vn_ujln9McAlJt2Zbq8isrS901VwDTjPmXp7m3xeJF0FagjRrjE03dndnm0IMiP7Abt7-rQ2ypN5PH6x6Vt5cwr=w640-h494" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-18733194864413717042024-02-25T06:58:00.000-08:002024-02-25T06:58:35.975-08:00Fiscal Impact of Refugees and Asylees<div><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/02/seeing-immigration-as-threat.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">Many</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/01/the-myth-of-ellis-island-name-changes.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">posts</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2021/12/decline-in-foreign-born-population.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">discussed </a><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/08/immigration-data.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">immigration</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> and </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/08/the-cost-of-citizenship-and-asylum.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">asylum</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/fiscal-impact-refugees-asylees">Ghertner, R., S. Macartney, and M. Dost. The Fiscal Impact of Refugees and Asylees at the Federal, State,</a></div><div><a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/fiscal-impact-refugees-asylees">and Local Levels from 2005 to 2019. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S.</a></div><div><a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/fiscal-impact-refugees-asylees">Department of Health & Human Services. February 2024</a></div><blockquote>Between 1990 and 2022, the United States welcomed over 2.1 million<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/03/an-admiral-and-famous-vietnam-photo.html"> refugees</a> and accepted over 800,000 asylees. While the purpose of granting visas to refugees and asylees is humanitarian, they do impact the United States economically. This analysis estimates the fiscal impact of refugees and asylees on federal, state, and local governments from 2005 to 2019.<br /><br />Key Points<div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The net fiscal impact of <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/01/immigration-economy-and-federal-budget.html">refugees and asylees</a> was positive over the 15-year period, at $123.8 billion. This means that r<span style="background-color: #fcff01;">efugees and asylees contributed more revenue than they cost in expenditures to the government. The net fiscal benefit to the federal government was estimated at $31.5 billion, and the net fiscal benefit to state and local governments was estimated at $92.3 billion.</span></li><li>Governmental expenditures on refugees and asylees totaled an estimated $457.2 billion over the 15-year period. Expenditures by the federal government represented 72.5 percent of the total, at $331.5 billion. State and local government expenditures were 27.5 percent of the total, at $125.7 billion.</li><li>Refugees and asylees contributed an estimated $581 billion in revenue to federal, state and local governments. They contributed an estimated $363 billion to the federal government through payroll, income, and excise taxes, and $218 billion to state and local governments, through income, sales, and property taxes.</li><li>Including refugees and asylees and their spouses and children under age 18, most of whom are U.S. citizens, expenditures totaled $723.4 billion. Refugees, asylees, and their immediate families contributed an estimated $739.4 billion in revenue to all levels of government.</li><li>When compared with the total U.S. population on a per capita basis, refugees and asylees had a comparable net fiscal impact.</li></ul></div></blockquote><div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-16803139117837475762024-02-24T06:30:00.000-08:002024-02-24T06:30:28.056-08:00More Bad Media News<p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/07/starbucks-and-newspapers.html" style="color: #224dc5; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Many posts</span></a><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/07/starbucks-and-newspapers.html" style="color: #ffdb39; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"> </a>have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/02/how-newspapers-starve-liquidation.html" style="background-color: white; color: #c5224d; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">dealt</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> with news </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2019/02/more-media-cuts.html" style="background-color: white; color: #c5224d; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">media</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">. </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/03/salinas-newspaper-has-no-reporters.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">Newspapers</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> are </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/09/news-platforms.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">struggling</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;"> and online publications also have </span><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2020/05/media-slashes.html" style="background-color: white; color: #224dc5; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-decoration-line: none;">problems</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 13.2px;">.</span></p><p><a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/vice-media-mass-layoffs"> Olivia Rosane at Common Dreams:</a></p><blockquote>Vice CEO Bruce Dixon sent a memo to employees on Thursday announcing that the company was laying off hundreds of workers and would no longer publish on its flagship Vice.com website, <a href="https://twitter.com/maxwelltani/status/1760788047665512887?s=20">saying</a> it was "no longer cost-effective" to do so.<br /><br />This marks the latest round of layoffs in what is shaping up to be <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/01/goodbye-dc-bureaus.html">a brutal start</a> to 2024 for the news industry. A total of 528 news workers <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-136-to-82307-to-begin-2024-financial-tech-lead/">were laid off</a> in January, not counting the more than 300 who lost their jobs when The Messenger <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/02/01/the-messenger-shuts-down-layoffs-2024-media/72435167007/">shut down</a> on the last day of the month. A day after the Vice news, Washington, D.C.'s NPR affiliate WAMU announced it was closing down its DCist website and laying off 15 staffers, as Axios <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/23/wamu-dcist-layoffs-npr-washington">reported</a>, though it said it would add new positions in audio.<br /><br />"Is it 'ethical' to be teaching journalism right now?" Scientific American senior media editor Tulika Bose <a href="https://twitter.com/TulikaBose_/status/1760804318351876542">asked</a> on social media Thursday.</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-48711738629172363112024-02-22T05:53:00.000-08:002024-02-22T05:53:20.671-08:00Russia, Disinformation, and Secession<a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/digital-future-daily/2024/02/20/the-future-of-disinformation-this-time-in-mississippi-00142297">Mohar Chatterjee at Politico:</a><br /><blockquote>One of the strangest glimpses into the future of information warfare might be what’s happening in Jackson, Miss., where a man named Ramzu Yunus is trying to launch an independent nation for people of African descent on Facebook.<br /><br />His <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/02/secession.html">secessionist</a> movement — while very local and very fringe — already has the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/01/1152899845/a-pro-russian-social-media-campaign-is-trying-to-influence-politics-in-africa">backing</a> of an intricate, global cross-platform propaganda network called the <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/africa/news/belgian-stalinist-revealed-as-russian-fake-news-tsar-in-africa/">Russophere</a>.<br /><br />Last year, Yunus tried to drum up support for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/01/1152899845/a-pro-russian-social-media-campaign-is-trying-to-influence-politics-in-africa">a similar separatist movement</a> in Detroit, and has touted support from Russia on his Facebook page. <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/06/secession.html">In Texas</a>, a different Russian influence campaign is <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/russia-disinformation-campaign-civil-war-texas-border/">amplifying calls for</a> a “Texas secession” and an imminent “civil war” over the border crisis.<br /><br />What might seem from the outside like an eccentric group of grassroots campaigns is a new front for a <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/05/russian-active-measures-in-united-states.html">global pro-Russia disinformation operation</a> — one that extends to the developing world as well, according to <a href="https://www.logically.ai/resources/russia-pmc-wagner-allegedly-support-us-based-independence-movements">a new report</a> by UK-based AI intelligence group Logically</blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5867805960091581671.post-44519025707285743212024-02-21T04:24:00.000-08:002024-02-21T04:24:13.616-08:00Dictator for a Day<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/07/trump-dictator-authoritarian-democracy/"> Philip Bump at WP:</a></p><blockquote>On Wednesday, UMass Amherst <a href="https://polsci.umass.edu/trump-and-gop-toplines-crosstabs-feb-7-2024">released</a> the results of a poll conducted by YouGov in which respondents were asked about the concept. The framing of the comment was stark, excluding Trump’s specific plans for using his theoretical dictatorial power. It was just, “<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/11/trumps-authoritarian-language.html">Trump</a> recently said that if elected, he would be a <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/09/milley-on-oath.html">dictator </a>only on the first day of his second term. Do you think that this is a good or bad idea for the country?”<br /><br />A plurality of respondents said this was “definitely bad” with 6 in 10 saying it was “definitely” or “probably” bad. Among Republicans, though, a third said it was “definitely good” with three-quarters saying it was at least “probably” good.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Again, this isn’t “<a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2024/01/authoritarian-playbook.html">Trump</a> wants temporary absolute powers to build a wall on the border.” It is “is it good or bad if Trump has absolute powers for a fixed time period.” And three-quarters of Republicans responded that this was probably a good idea.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2023/10/support-for-violence-and.html">This response isn’t surprising as such</a>. It’s been obvious for years that there is a non-insignificant part of the American public, largely on the right, that is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/10/lot-americans-embrace-trumps-authoritarianism/?itid=lk_inline_manual_15">supportive of the idea</a> of <a href="http://www.bessettepitney.net/2022/09/bipartisan-anti-democratic-sentiment.html">suborning democracy</a> to absolute executive power. There is unquestionably a gap between “supporting a dictatorship in theory” or “as a way to indicate anger at the system” and “approving of an actual implementation of dictatorship.” But it seems safe to assume that the more people you have in the theoretically accepting group, the larger the literally accepting group would turn out to be.</blockquote><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com