"Certified Innocent"

The New York Times reports:

Gov. Rick Perry of Texas was indicted on two felony counts on Friday by a state grand jury examining his handling of a local district attorney’s drunken driving arrest and the state financing for a public corruption unit under the lawyer’s control.

The indictment was returned late Friday in Austin.

The investigation centered on Mr. Perry’s veto power as governor. His critics asserted that he used that power as leverage to try to get an elected official and influential Democrat — Rosemary Lehmberg, the district attorney in Travis County — to step down after her arrest for drunken driving last year. Ms. Lehmberg is Austin’s top prosecutor and oversees a powerful public corruption unit that investigates state, local and federal officials; its work led to the 2005 indictment of a former Republican congressman, Tom DeLay on charges of violating campaign finance laws.

If the case goes to trial, and if the jury clears Perry, he can find a precedent for a presidential race.

In 1974, a grand jury indicted John Connally, former Texas governor and Treasury Secretary for accepting a $10,000 bribe from milk producers.  A jury acquitted him. He sought the 1980 GOP nomination, saying that he was the only candidate who was "certified innocent."

That's the good news.

The bad news is that, after spending $11 million on the campaign, he got a total of one delegate.

Texas v. California

Our chapter on federalism discusses economic competition among the states, and includes a photograph of former California legislator Chuck DeVore changing his license plate as he moves to Texas. Yesterday, Joel Fox wrote at Fox and Hounds about a new move by the governor of the Lone Star State.

Texas Governor Rick Perry is making a push to recruit California companies. Competition for jobs and businesses should spur California to respond with positive actions to improve the state’s business climate.

Yesterday, a press release issued by Perry’s office, announced a radio ad campaign aimed at California businesses, in which the governor says: “Building a business is tough, but I hear building a business in California is next to impossible.”

Perry invites California businesses to check out the Texas Wide Open for Business website to “see why our low taxes, sensible regulations and fair legal system are just the thing to get your business moving to Texas.” The website is designed specifically to appeal to a California audience.

...
Perry is not limiting his activity to radio commercials that will run in the San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, Inland Empire and San Diego media markets. The Pacific Coast Business Times, which serves San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, reported that Governor Perry will visit Haas Automation in Oxnard next week. The 1500 employee high-end manufacturer is considering expansion options and is in talks with California officials over taxes and fees, according to the report.

Here is the radio ad. 

Governor Jerry Brown of California is unimpressed, comparing the campaign to, er, flatulence.

Oops!

Texas Tribune reporter Jay Root has written an excellent book about Rick Perry's disastrous presidential campaign.  It is full of wise observations about journalism and campaigning in the age of Twitter.

Federalism, Health Care, and Texas

A July 3 post discussed the federalism implications of the health care law and the subsequent Supreme Court decision. The Associated Press reports:

Gov. Rick Perry said Monday that Texas won't establish an online marketplace for patients to shop for insurance or expand Medicaid, two key elements of the federal health care overhaul.

In a letter sent to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, the Republican governor and former presidential candidate said both elements "represent brazen intrusions into the sovereignty of our state."

The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal reports:

 “Chief Justice Roberts in his opinion in the health care case declared that Congress could not force states to accept an expansion or risk losing all Medicaid funds,” said Mark McKenzie, an assistant professor of political science [Texas Tech] who teaches, among other classes, a graduate course on judicial politics.

“Gov. Perry is simply taking advantage of the states’ ability to opt out of the new expansions to Medicaid brought about by the president’s health care law,” he explained.

... 

The opinion Roberts wrote for the court in the 5-4 decision “was in line with previous rulings by the Supreme Court that basically say that Congress cannot commandeer state governments and order them to carry out Congress’s policies.”

In this case, McKenzie said, the provisions of “Obamacare” that would have required states to expand Medicare programs or lose all Medicare funding “were seen by the court as unduly coercive” toward the states.

“In some instances, states are seen as co-equal partners with the national government in our process of democracy,” McKenzie said. “Thus, there are limits to what Congress can order the states to do.”

Politico's Top Five American History Gaffes

What If...

At The Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Bud Kennedy notes that Rick Santorum is where Rick Perry had expected to be.

"Yes, Santorum is living Perry's dream, but Perry would have been so much better at it," said Adam Schiffer, a Texas Christian University political science professor.

"If he had been the candidate religious leaders hoped, he could have had that constituency locked up like Santorum. But Perry would have had broader appeal."
Perry's campaign launched when some ministers became concerned that Newt Gingrich wouldn't run hard and Santorum couldn't win.

But Perry also won support from business leaders who view Santorum as a Senate washout with no executive experience.

"No other candidate so effectively blended both the social and economic wings of the party" as Perry, said political science professor Jerry Polinard of the University of Texas-Pan American in Edinburg.

"Instead, he will appear prominently in every future textbook on campaign mistakes."

Had Perry not tripped over his tongue early and often, he would be talking mostly about jobs and economic growth by now, not sex, college snobs or John F. Kennedy, the topics of Santorum.

(When the contraception question came up, Perry could tell how his father-in-law did his vasectomy.)

"Of all the candidates who started last May and June, it's unbelievable that Rick Santorum would be the challenger left," Schiffer said.

Knowing History

Deliberation depends on a certain degree of historical knowledge. At RealClearHistory, Samuel Chi lays out reasons for concern:

We’re now a country led by a man who thought JFK talked Khrushchev out of the Cuban missile crisis (he didn’t); claimed that our country built the “Intercontinental Railroad” (must be from New York to Paris); and bragged that his uncle liberated Auschwitz (was he in the Soviet Red Army?).

And I’m not picking on just Obama. His political detractors are every bit as ignorant on history: Ask them about the American Revolution, and you’d find that Michele Bachmann thought the battles at Lexington and Concord were in New Hampshire; Rick Perry believed the war was fought in the 16th century; and Sarah Palin claimed it all began when Paul Revere warned the British....
A Marist College survey last year revealed just how clueless Americans are about history. Barely half of the respondents knew that the U.S. gained its independence in 1776 (Rick Perry sure wasn’t among them), and over a quarter thought the colonies revolted against a country other than Britain (some believed it was China). The percentage of correct answers was proportional to the respondents’ age -- which certainly is no surprise.

As our generations get more ignorant about history, it prompts the question: Does history still matter?

I hesitate to bring up George Santayana’s famous “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” warning, because “remember” implied that it was learned at one time and later forgotten. In these times, it’s rather more like “those who are ignorant of the past are destined to screw up because they think they’re doing something new.”...

That’s where we come in with our humble pitch: We launched RealClearHistory in September 2011 with the mission of delivering daily authoritative and informative history commentary and analysis. There are also, of course, a number of established great sites, including the University of Houston’s Digital History, George Mason’s History News Network and The History Channel, just to name a few.

What Oppo Looks Like

At Buzzfeed, Andrew Kaczynski reports:

A document found online by BuzzFeed appears to be John McCain's entire, 200-page opposition research file — or “book” — on Mitt Romney from 2008, the year they were bitter rivals. Segments of the book have been posted on RedState.com, but this the first time the document has been shared for public consumption in its entirety.

The Daily Caller has posted the file as a pdf.  Here is a snippet:

Meanwhile, the Huffington Post reports:

But the book doesn't quite match the thoroughness of the 500-pager on Gov. Rick Perry obtained by The Huffington Post. The Texas-sized tome was furnished by the super PAC Texans for America's Future and created by Texas Democratic campaign consultant Jeff Rotkoff.

 Who knows? It might be useful again one day.

It was originally made by Link Strategies for Perry's 2010 gubernatorial opponent Bill White (D). The book amounts to a deep dive on the governor's tenure. Its authors were prescient in their focus, providing thorough forensics of his Perry's job creation record and his personal wealth accrued through shady land deals, both of which have become notable issues in the 2012 campaign.

Some of this is old news. HuffPost has covered the land deals, and the job-creation record. And before Perry started talking about "vulture capitalism," there were stories on HuffPost -- and elsewhere -- on the governor's crony capitalism. But the book is worth a read as the best, obviously-slanted, document of the governor's decade in office. 

Rick Perry Opposition Research Book

Zero-Based Budgeting

At the debate last night, Governor Perry proposed zero-based budgeting for foreign aid. The broader idea has been around for a long time. On August 8, 1981, UPI reported:

A prize concept pioneered by the Carter administration -- ''zero based budgeting'' -- has been awarded its own zero by the Reagan administration.

In a formal order, budget director David Stockman rescinded the technique throughout government Friday. It was an inauspicious end to an accounting innovation heralded as an antidote to government waste and poor planning.

The system, introduced in 1978, was supposed to make departments build their spending requests from nothing -- justifying entire categories of expenditures, not just the yearly increases.

Instead, Stockman said, ''The technique had proved cumbersome in some respects and had not achieved significant results in holding down federal government spending.''

The Debate

Rick Perry is still dealing with the fallout from his performance in Wednesday night's debate, when he said he would eliminate three federal agencies but could only remember two. KSAT in San Antonio reports:

Watching the re-run of Texas Gov. Rick Perry's latest gaffe, Dr. David Crockett, a political science professor at Trinity University, could only shake his head and laugh.

"I feel his pain in the sense that we all have our lists and we forgot one," Crockett said.

...

He said Republicans are looking for a candidate who can hold his own against President Obama's renowned speaking skills.

"That may be the problem with Rick Perry, he's failed the audition," Crockett said.

He said although debates rarely are the deciding factor in the general election, voters use them to gauge whether a candidate is worth their time.

Crockett said he thought Perry tried to handle his brain freeze with humor, but the awkward moment only reinforces his prior reputation of not doing well in debates.

He also said it was a missed opportunity for Perry to redefine himself.

Crockett said, "It put the nail in that coffin."

Meanwhile, other candidates did better. Jonathan Oosting writes at MLive about reaction at Oakland University, the site of the debate:

"Romney tops the list," said Dave Dulio, associate professor and chair of the political science department. "He had some really good reactions from the crowd in the debate hall, and I think his answers would really resonate with the Republican electorate."

As expected, moderators asked Romney about the federal bailout that ultimately saved General Motors and Chrysler. While the Detroit native's continued opposition may not be popular with many in Michigan, observers praised his consistency even as critics questioned his accuracy.

"I thought his answer was very well stated," said Terri Towner, assistant professor of political science. "He had a different solution for the auto industry, one that may resonate with some Michiganders. He proposed a different solution, which he said was a better solution. It wasn't a bailout, it was structured bankruptcy, and he said the industry would have come out stronger."

Professor Dulio discussed Cain's response to a question about sexual harassment:

"I thought it was going to be the first one," he said. "I think Cain handled it about as well as he could. He handled it better than the first time he was asked about it, that's for sure. He had a good night, in part, because he dealt with it and it was over."

Perry's YouTube Moment

Viral video can sometimes hurt political candidates. The first major case was the "macaca incident" in 2006, when Virginia Senator George Allen appeared to use a disparaging term for an opposition tracker, who promptly posted the remarks on YouTube. In recent days, Rick Perry endured a YouTube moment of his own as Brittany Nunn writes at The Amarillo Globe-News.

Herman Cain’s pain is Rick Perry’s gain. After the Texas governor’s speech in New Hampshire set YouTube buzzing, Cain’s efforts to deflect allegations of sexual harassment shifted the spotlight in a suddenly wild Republican presidential race.

“I think the best approach would be to thank Mr. Cain for the sexual harassment,” joked David Rausch, a political science professor at West Texas A&M University.

But observers still are struggling to explain Perry’s behavior during his speech Friday. Video footage of Perry acting unusually animated while addressing a conservative group went viral on YouTube over the weekend. Viewers of the 25-minute speech said Perry looked disoriented and a little unsteady as he waved his hands and arms, grinned widely and laughed at his own jokes.

Rausch said he thinks Perry simply could have been trying to show his enthusiasm and got carried away. Discussion on the Internet included speculation that Perry was under the influence of alcohol or medication/

...

“Sex is easy for the media to understand - everyone understands it,” Rausch said. “Whereas religious enthusiasm is a little harder to understand. It looks like there was some sleep deprivation,” Rausch speculated.

Perry on the Birth Certificate

Rick Perry is still discussing President Obama's birth certificate. From an interview in The New York Times:

Q. Why did you choose to keep the birther issue alive?

A. It’s a good issue to keep alive. You know, Donald [Trump] has got to have some fun. It’s fun to poke him a little bit and say “Hey, let’s see your grades and your birth certificate.” I don’t have a clue about where the president — and what this birth certificate says. But it’s also a great distraction. I’m not distracted by it.

Perry and the Birther Issue

In an interview with Parade, Texas Governor Rick Perry entered the "birther" contoversy:

Governor, do you believe that President Barack Obama was born in the United States?

I have no reason to think otherwise.

That’s not a definitive, “Yes, I believe he”—
Well, I don’t have a definitive answer, because he’s never seen my birth certificate.

But you’ve seen his.
I don’t know. Have I?

You don’t believe what’s been released?
I don’t know. I had dinner with Donald Trump the other night.

And?
That came up.

And he said?
He doesn’t think it’s real.

And you said?
I don’t have any idea. It doesn’t matter. He’s the President of the United States. He’s elected. It’s a distractive issue.

Cain's Challenges

Herman Cain recently enjoyed a surge in support for the GOP presidential nomination. But will it last? Walter C. Jones writes at the Morris News Service:

But Cain has never served in elective office and is behind Romney and Perry in fundraising, leaving most experts to discount his chances.

That’s because voters haven’t gotten serious about their choice yet, according to Steven P. Millies, associate professor of political science at the University of South Carolina-Aiken.

“Republicans all over the United States are having a hard time closing the deal with Romney even though it’s becoming more inevitable,” he said.

Economic conservatives, including those in the tea-party movement, don’t trust him because of the healthcare plan he instituted in Massachusetts when he was governor, and evangelicals don’t trust him because he’s a Mormon.

“What you’ve really got is a double strike against Romney,” Millies said.

Independents do prefer him, as do those over age 65, according to the breakdown of the polls. His strength in New Hampshire, where InsiderAdvantage has him leading with 39 points to Cain’s 24, stems from being governor of a neighboring state.

So, the conservatives in the party are trying out different alternatives to him. Cain, though, isn’t likely to be it when it’s time to vote unless he can quickly get the wherewithal to compete in large states like Florida, said Robert Jackson, political science professor at Florida State University.

“It’s going to be important for him to translate his momentum into fundraising,” Jackson said of Cain. “In a month or so he won’t be the flavor of the month.”

Rick Perry, Literally

Those who study and practice politics should take care in their choice of words. Strunk and White warn us that people often incorrectly use literal or literally "in support of exaggeration or violent metaphor." Paul Brians writes in Common Errors in English Usage:

Like “incredible,” “literally” has been so overused as a sort of vague intensifier that it is in danger of losing its literal meaning. It should be used to distinguish between a figurative and a literal meaning of a phrase. It should not be used as a synonym for “actually” or “really.” Don’t say of someone that he “literally blew up” unless he swallowed a stick of dynamite.

That observation brings us to Governor Rick Perry and his book Fed Up. If you read it literally, you find that it makes some extraordinary claims:

• "Keep in mind that since 2007, federal spending has literally exploded by about $1 trillion..." Watch out: those government checks are full of bombs. Call for the guy from The Hurt Locker!
• "Unfortunately, we are engaged in a fight to once again live in that country—and its future literally hangs in the balance." That must be one heck of a produce scale.
• "The amount of government spending occurring today is staggering, and we are seeing literally only the tip of a Titanic-sized iceberg looming on the horizon. " If you can see it from Texas, that iceberg must be in the Gulf of Mexico. So much for global warming.
• "This is not hyperbole, for our ability as Americans to have access to the best health care in the world—and our right to make our own personal health care decisions—literally hangs in the balance..." Boy, they're sure loading stuff onto that gigantic produce scale. No hyperbole there.

Perry and Energy

A problem for presidential candidates is finding issue positions that both appeal to the party base and yet set them apart from other candidates. That is hard to do, as Governor Perry is finding with the issue of energy.

Most Republicans would probably approve of Governor Perry’s plan, but it’s unlikely to shake up the campaign. The major parts of the plan are neither new nor unique to Perry. Republicans have been saying these things for years, so Governor Perry is just adding his voice to the choir.

Says Governor Perry: “I believe in an `all of the above’ energy plan that encourages the development of all our conventional and renewable sources.” He is echoing John McCain: “We have to have all of the above, alternative fuels, wind, tide, solar, natural gas, clean coal technology. All of these things we can do as Americans and we can take on this mission and we can overcome it.” (Second debate with President Obama, 10-07-08)

Even Democrats have talked about some of these things. Perry says he will initiate a review of federal regulations. President Obama said the same thing. See a White House fact sheet from January 11: “The President has ordered a review of regulations to remove needless burdens, while ensuring common sense standards to protect the American people.”

Perry Keeps Struggling

Our chapters on mass media, political parties, and elections call provide context for watching televised debates. Last night, the Republicans debated on Bloomberg TV. Although Bloomberg's audience is smaller than that of other cable networks -- a number of local providers do not carry it -- the reaction in the media has an impact. Bud Kennedy writes at The Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

"I didn't see anything that would give voters a compelling reason to re-examine Perry," said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

"There were no 'wow' moments. He's just not as polished or as smooth as Romney. Every time they're onstage, that works to Perry's detriment."

After Perry said he has an economic plan coming, "but I'm not going to lay it out for you tonight," he was drowned out in an echo chamber of talk about "9-9-9," Cain's tag line for his plan.

"The focus on Cain emphasized his role as the economic conservative," Wilson said. "That's the role Perry wanted."

Yet Perry remains the top challenger, said Richard Murray, professor of political policy at the University of Houston.

"He's the only candidate who has the funding," Murray said.

"Cain has no personal money and shows little ability to raise it. So as we move into the primaries, Perry will remain the only realistic alternative."

A further Perry fade would give Romney the nomination, Murray said. But more debates won't help.

"With Gov. Perry, you want to get him in the deep weeds and he kind of disappears," Murray said.

"Cain can say '9-9-9.' Romney is a good debater."

After the debate, ABC reports, the governor partied like it's 1599.

Texas Governor Rick Perry energetically bounded into the Beta Theta Pi fraternity on Dartmouth College’s campus after Tuesday night’s debate, but when he was asked a question about states’ rights, he slipped up on the dates for when the American Revolution was fought.

“Our Founding Fathers never meant for Washington, D.C. to be the fount of all wisdom. As a matter of fact they were very much afraid if that because they’d just had this experience with this far-away government that had centralized thought process and planning and what have you, and then it was actually the reason that we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown if you will,” Perry said.”

But Perry’s version of American history doesn’t match the history books, which show the American Revolution was fought in the 18th century.

Perry, Cain, and Economics

With his poll numbers dropping, Texas Governor Rick Perry plans to highlight economic issues. Rick Dunham writes at The Houston Chronicle:

"This primary has been characterized by candidates yo-yo-ing through popular opinion," said Cindy Rugeley, a political scientist at Texas Tech University. "If he comes out with something new and different and at the right time, he probably could bounce right back up."

Perry's supporters see the issue of jobs as an opportunity to refocus the race for the Republican presidential nomination and to shift the policy debate to more comfortable turf. But as he prepares for the first debate of the 2012 campaign limited to economic issues, Perry has yet to translate his state's job-creation record into an effective political issue.

Georgia businessman Herman Cain has won national headlines with his catchy "9-9-9" economic plan that calls for a 9 percent corporate tax rate for businesses, a 9 percent income tax rate for individuals, and a 9 percent national sales tax. Front-runner Mitt Romney has unveiled a 59-point economic plan. Perry, whose campaign has been distracted by controversies over immigration, vaccinations and Mormonism, has yet to fill in the details of his economic plans beyond four broad "principles" - spending restraint, low taxes, sensible regulation and curbs on lawsuits.

"He has to find ways to draw distinctions between himself and Mitt Romney, and worry about his right flank, where Herman Cain came out of nowhere," said David Lanoue, a professor of political science at Columbus State University in Georgia.

The 501 Thicket

Our chapter on elections and campaigns discusses campaign finance, and our election update mentions the impact of Citizens United. As we have previously discussed here, Super PACs have become a major part of the scene. And in 2012, some of them are arising to support specific presidential candidates. At ProPublica, Marian Wang explains an even newer development:

Perry’s allies also just launched a new nonprofit, Citizens for a Greater America, which will also be able to take in unlimited funds while keeping donors secret. iWatch News posted a fact sheet [11] on the new group that it traced to a Perry fundraiser [12] who had received it from Mike Toomey, Perry’s close ally [13] and former chief of staff.

The efforts could be the start of a new trend in campaign finance—nonprofits started by allies of a specific candidate that can be used as conduits for undisclosed donations. Together with those so-called candidate-specific super PACs [14], the two groups make a powerful pair, allowing supporters to donate to support specific candidates with few restrictions and, if so desired, with no disclosure.

As we explain in our guide to campaign finance [15], the nonprofit groups, or 501(c)(4)s, can't be primarily involved in politics but can donate to super PACS, and they don't have to publicly disclose their donors. Meanwhile, super PACs must disclose their donors, and they can’t coordinate their spending with candidates’ campaigns, but they can run ads directly in support of candidates and they can take unlimited money. If a nonprofit in turn passes along donations to a super PAC, the original donors, whether an individual or corporation, can stay hidden. (Campaign finance reform groups have filed complaints [16] with the IRS against both Democratic- and Republican-aligned nonprofits, alleging that the groups are violating their tax-exempt status by crossing the line into political activity and partnering closely with their explicitly political sister super PACs.)

A Deliberative Perspective on Presidential Campaigning

At The Washington Examiner, Byron York interviews Fred Thompson, a former senator who launched a late and unsuccessful bid for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. Thompson makes a point that many analyses of presidential races overlook: candidates need time to think and deliberate about their positions.

There's no off-Broadway," Thompson says as he recalls the campaign's early days. "It's all compressed. You don't get a chance to knock the rough edges off."

Starting late brought a variety of troubles. "If you as a candidate have not spent the last year or two putting together your organization and lining up the key people, that's a problem," says Thompson. "It's not a date on the calendar as much as it is what you've done over the previous year. By definition, a person who is getting in late and making up his mind late has not done some of those things."

There are plenty of other issues -- raising money, lining up support, dealing with the press -- but the biggest challenge for any late candidate is the most basic one: thinking things through.

"I think a candidate under these circumstances has to have skills and equilibrium that are superior to the other candidates," Thompson explains. "You have to have time to think. You've had a lot of experience. You've had life experience, you've had government experience. What has all that taught you? You can't just relate statistics and points and employment records and promise to repeal Obamacare on day one. Those are just ornaments that you put on the tree. You need the time to think things through."

Does candidate Rick Perry give the impression of a man who has had time to think deeply about how he's running for president, or why he's doing it in the first place? The short answer is no.

Take Perry's recent problems with immigration. The Texas governor's views conflict with a significant portion of the Republican base. But what if, by the time he was attacked for those views during last week's Republican debate, Perry had been making his case for months? What if he had been answering sometimes angry immigration questions in diners and town halls across Iowa since last winter? There's no way he would have made a mistake like the "no heart" remark at the debate, which did incalculable damage to his image among conservatives.

The simple secret of campaigns is that good candidates get better with practice. Watch one give a stump speech in March, and then watch again in December, and it will likely be a lot better. There's a reason Mitt Romney's debate performances have been so much improved in this campaign than in 2007-2008. He's been working at it a long time.