California: The Exodus of the Affluent

 Don Lee at LAT: 

In 2021 and 2022, about 750,000 more people left the state than moved in, according to recently released Census Bureau data. That was about as many as the total net loss of residents for all five years before the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.

But it’s not just the sheer numbers of people who have left. What’s different is that in each of the prior two years, more than 250,000 Californians with at least a bachelor’s degree moved out, while an average of 175,000 college graduates from other states settled in California, according to an analysis of census data by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.

In prior periods over the last two decades, that balance was about even or slightly in California’s favor, even though the state consistently lost many more residents overall to other states than it gained from them. The recent out-migration has been particularly pronounced among Californians with graduate and professional degrees.

California is heavily dependent on high earners to meet government fiscal needs. Tax filers in the top 1% of income, earning around $1 million and above, have typically accounted for 40% to 45% of the state’s total personal income tax revenue, said Brian Uhler, deputy legislative analyst at California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, which estimated the $68-billion budget deficit.
...

In the tax filing years 2020 and 2021, the average gross income of taxpayers who had moved from California to another state was about $137,000. That was up from $75,000 in 2015 and 2016, according to migration and personal income data from the Internal Revenue Service.

IRS and other data show that Texas has long been, by far, the top destination for Californians. And in the years 2015-16, an individual or couple who had moved from California to Texas reported an average income of $78,000, about the same as Texans who relocated to California. But by 2020-2021, California transplants in Texas reported an average income of about $137,000, while tax returns from former Texans who moved to California showed an average income of $75,000.

The income gap between those coming into California and those going out is even bigger when it comes to Florida, which, as far away as it is, has become a top five destination for emigrating Californians. Statistics show more older Californians are likely to move there. Florida, like Texas and Nevada and Tennessee, another more recent hot spot for Californians, doesn’t have a personal income tax.

In California, the top tax rate for personal income is 12.3%.

Libertarian Rating of States

Many posts have discussed differences among the states, with special emphasis on California and Texas.

William Ruger and Jason Sorens at Cato:

This 2023 edition of Freedom in the 50 States presents a completely revised and updated ranking of the American states on the basis of how their policies protect or infringe on individual liberty.

This edition improves on the methodology for weighting and combining state and local policies to create a comprehensive index. Authors William Ruger and Jason Sorens introduce many new policy variables suggested by readers and changes in the broader policy environment (e.g., universal school choice and state laws that shape local zoning authority).

More than 230 policy variables and their sources are available to the public on this website. New policy variables include a battery of state‐​level land‐​use laws affecting housing, several new occupational licensing measures, a reworked household goods moving company licensing variable that focuses on the “competitor’s veto” element, qualified immunity limitations, and new abortion laws for the alternative indices. In this edition, the authors have updated their findings to

• Provide the most up‐​to‐​date freedom index yet, including scores as of January 1, 2023.
• Retrospectively evaluate how state COVID-19 responses affected freedom during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.
• Refresh their analysis of how the policies driving income growth and interstate migration have changed—before and after the Great Recession and during the pandemic.

In addition to providing the latest rankings as of the beginning of 2023, the 2023 edition provides annual data on economic and personal freedoms and their components back to 2000 and for some variables, back to the 1930s.

To read the full report, visit Free​dominthe50S​tates​.org.

See in particular, the writeups for California (#48), Texas (#17), and Florida (#2) 

 

California Update: Losing Population, Flunking Computer Science

Erin Davis at Axios:

New data from the U.S. Census shows that around 820,000 people moved out of California and 550,000 out of New York in 2022. They join more than 8 million Americans who moved states in 2022.

Why it matters: The rising cost of living is pushing people out of expensive coastal areas, and the trend doesn't look likely to change in coming years: four in ten Californians and and three in ten New Yorkers say they're considering moving out of state.

• Many of those moving are headed to Florida or Texas, the states with the largest influxes in 2022.
• But Texans worried about the "California-ing" of their state may not need to worry: Democrats are much more likely to move to blue states, while Republicans move to red states.

Carolyn Jones at CalMatters:

Five years ago, California embarked on an ambitious plan to bring computer science to all K-12 students, bolstering the state economy and opening doors to promising careers — especially for low-income students and students of color.

But a lack of qualified teachers has stalled these efforts, and left California — a global hub for the technological industry — ranked near the bottom of states nationally in the percentage of high schools offering computer science classes.

“I truly believe that California’s future is dependent on preparing students for the tech-driven global economy. You see where the world is going, and it’s urgent that we make this happen,” said Allison Scott, chief executive officer of the Kapor Foundation, an Oakland-based organization that advocates for equity in the technology sector.

Scott was among those at a conference in Oakland this week aimed at expanding computer science education nationally. While some states — such as Arkansas, Maryland and South Carolina — are well on their way to offering computer science to all students, California lags far behind. According to a 2022 report by Code.org, only 40% of California high schools offer computer science classes, well below the national average of 53%.

California’s low-income students, rural students and students of color were significantly less likely to have access to computer science classes, putting them at a disadvantage in the job market, according to a 2021 report by the Kapor Center and Computer Science for California.

 

Sticky States

Texas natives likeliest to ‘stick’ around, pointing to state’s economic health

Ana Pranger, Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas August 29, 2023

The share of people born in a state and who stay there can provide an important measure of its attractiveness to workers. The stickiness of native residents is also key to maintaining a stable (or growing) population and workforce, which is vital to economic growth.

To figure out which states are best at retaining their native residents, we calculated the stickiness of each state. Using American Community Survey (ACS) data, we estimated the share of people born in each state who still lived in that state as of the 2021 survey (Chart 1).

Downloadable chart | Chart data

Texas is the stickiest state in the country by far, with approximately 82 percent of native Texans still living here in 2021. Other sticky states include North Carolina (75.5 percent), Georgia (74.2 percent), California (73.0 percent) and Utah (72.9 percent).

At the other end of the spectrum, Wyoming is the least-sticky state, with only 45.2 percent of natives remaining there. North Dakota and Alaska were the only other states with less than half their native population staying there (48.6 percent and 48.7 percent, respectively). Rhode Island (55.2 percent) and South Dakota (54.2 percent) round out the bottom five.

Notably, the least-sticky states tend to see high levels of outmigration of everyone—not just their native residents (Chart 2).Downloadable chart | Chart data

Overall outmigration numbers track everyone moving from one state to another state, including both people born there and those who moved there before leaving, making them a better indicator of population flows.

In addition to being the stickiest state, Texas had the lowest outmigration rate in 2021, followed by Maine and Michigan. Wyoming, Alaska and Hawaii experienced the highest outmigration rates.

Texas Trubune Cuts

Many posts have dealt with media problems such as ghost newspapers and news deserts.

Some national outlets are doing fine, but state and local news organizations are struggling.

Angela Fu at Poynter:

Driven by unsteady economic conditions and changes in the media industry, The Texas Tribune executed layoffs Wednesday for the first time in its 14-year history.

In an email to staff, CEO Sonal Shah wrote that 2023 has been a particularly challenging year for the outlet, which many have come to see as a model for nonprofit journalism. At a time when newsrooms across the country are shrinking, the Tribune has maintained a largely upward trajectory, growing both its staff and budget as it expands its coverage of the state.

That momentum appeared to come to a halt Wednesday when 11 journalists were laid off, some of whom had worked at the outlet for years. Tribune copy chief Emily Goldstein posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the paper’s entire copy desk was eliminated, and senior editor and writing coach David Pasztor shared that he and the paper’s demographics and criminal justice reporters were all laid off. The layoffs also included two longtime multimedia reporters, one of whom won the outlet its first national Edward R. Murrow award, according to a post by former Tribune reporter Elise Hu.

“This year has proven more challenging for us than others — changes in the industry, the unsteady economy and the need to explore new platforms and modes of storytelling are all things the Tribune must address head on. We know we must change to stay ahead,” Shah wrote in her email to staff. “There are, of course, other challenges facing the media industry: AI, uneven news readership and engagement, changing audience behaviors and the growing phenomenon of news avoidance."

...

The Tribune currently has more than 100 people listed on its staff page, and it won two national Edward R. Murrow Awards just last week, including one for its breaking news coverage of the Uvalde mass shooting.

The layoffs come at a time of turmoil within the news industry. Dozens of news outlets have initiated layoffs this year, including nonprofits and newsrooms that had previously been regarded as relatively stable. Those cuts include NPR, which laid off roughly 100 employees in March, and the Los Angeles Times, which announced 74 cuts in June, its first layoffs since billionaire Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong acquired the paper five years ago.

Global employment firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas estimated in June there were at least 17,436 layoffs in the media industry during the first five months of 2023 — a record high.

Homeless in California and Texas

Marisa Kendall at CalMatters:

Texas as a whole last year recorded a 28% drop in homelessness since 2012, while California’s homeless population grew by 43% over the same period. In Texas, 81 people are homeless for every 100,000 residents. In California, the rate is more than five times worse.

And that’s despite the fact that Texas spends far fewer state dollars on homelessness. Last year, not counting federal money, Texas put $19.7 million into its three main homelessness programs – equal to about $806 per unhoused person. California, on the other hand, poured $1.85 billion into its three main programs – or $10,786 for every unhoused person.

How do residents view homelessness in each state? The difference is stark: Homelessness is the No. 1 issue on California voters’ minds, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll. In a 2020 poll of Texas residents, it didn’t even crack the top 10.

From the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority

The 2023 Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count results were released today, showing a 9% rise in homelessness on any given night in Los Angeles County to an estimated 75,518 people and a 10% rise in the City of Los Angeles to an estimated 46,260 people. While this year’s increases are slightly lower than previous year-over-year increases in the homeless count, they continue a steady growth trend of people experiencing homelessness in the annual Point-in-Time Count (PIT Count).

The rise in LA County’s homeless population coincides with increases in major cities across the United States. Chicago and Portland saw double-digit increases (+57% and +20% respectively), while several Southern California counties experienced increases larger than Los Angeles, including San Bernadino (+26%), San Diego (+22%), Kern (+22%), and Riverside (+12%).

While the number of unhoused people in interim housing held steady at 20,363, the rise in the number of people experiencing unsheltered homelessness coincided with the overall increase in the PIT Count.

USA Grows, California and Illinois Shrink

From the Census Bureau:

After a historically low rate of change between 2020 and 2021, the U.S. resident population increased by 0.4%, or 1,256,003, to 333,287,557 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates and components of change released today.

Net international migration — the number of people moving in and out of the country — added 1,010,923 people between 2021 and 2022 and was the primary driver of growth. This represents 168.8% growth over 2021 totals of 376,029 – an indication that migration patterns are returning to pre-pandemic levels. Positive natural change (births minus deaths) increased the population by 245,080.

“There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. “A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the largest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase.”
...
Increasing by 470,708 people since July 2021, Texas was the largest-gaining state in the nation, reaching a total population of 30,029,572. By crossing the 30-million-population threshold this past year, Texas joins California as the only states with a resident population above 30 million. Growth in Texas last year was fueled by gains from all three components: net domestic migration (230,961), net international migration (118,614), and natural increase (118,159).

Florida was the fastest-growing state in 2022, with an annual population increase of 1.9%, resulting in a total resident population of 22,244,823.

“While Florida has often been among the largest-gaining states,” Wilder noted, “this was the first time since 1957 that Florida has been the state with the largest percent increase in population.”

It was also the second largest-gaining state behind Texas, with an increase of 416,754 residents. Net migration was the largest contributing component of change to Florida’s growth, adding 444,484 residents. New York had the largest annual numeric and percent population decline, decreasing by 180,341 (-0.9%). Net domestic migration (-299,557) was the largest contributing component to the state’s population decline.

Eighteen states experienced a population decline in 2022, compared to 15 and DC the prior year. California, with a population of 39,029,342, and Illinois, with a population of 12,582,032, also had six-figure decreases in resident population. Both states’ declining populations were largely due to net domestic outmigration, totaling 343,230 and 141,656, respectively.

Black Mayors

Brakkton Booker at Politico:

When Karen Bass is sworn in as Los Angeles mayor next month, she’ll be making history in more ways than one.

Not only will she be the first woman to lead LA, Bass will complete a rare tetrafecta of sorts: Black mayors will be running the nation’s four largest cities, with the congresswoman joining Eric Adams of New York, Lori Lightfoot of Chicago and Sylvester Turner of Houston.

“Anytime we get a new mayor, it’s exciting,” Frank Scott, the Democratic mayor of Little Rock, Ark., said in a phone interview. “But to have another mayor, a Black woman, who’s going to lead one of our nation’s major cities? That’s a big deal.”

This marks the first time these major metropolises will simultaneously be led by African Americans — and it may be for just a brief period. The leadership acumen of big city mayors is being tested now in how they address issues ranging from upticks in crime, to a sagging economy and high inflation, to housing affordability and homelessness.

And this is all taking place as the cities undergo seismic demographic shifts. All four are “majority minority” cities and these Black mayors are governing municipalities where Latinos, not Black residents, make up the largest non-white ethnic group.

Hispanics accounted for more than half of the growth in the U.S. population, according to the 2020 Census. Meanwhile, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and other big cities have seen their Black populations shrink in recent years in something of a reversal of what happened in the 1970s. These new migration patterns are altering political dynamics as Latinos consolidate power.

Red State, Blue State

 From the Rose Institute:

The governors of the nation’s four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. Beyond determining who will occupy governors’ offices, these contests will shape our nation’s direction in the coming years. The four “mega-states” have established rival and increasingly polarized visions of state government–one blue, the other red. California and New York have become national catalysts for progressive policies, while Texas and Florida have become the most powerful advocates of conservative alternatives. Their governors–Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Kathy Hochul (D-NY), Greg Abbott (R-TX), and Ron DeSantis (R-FL)–have come to embody these states’ highly partisan models. This election thus provides voters in the four states an opportunity to judge not only their governors, but also the blue or red agendas they represent. Moreover, the elections may give momentum to at least two of these governors–Newsom and DeSantis–to sell their states’ competing visions to the nation by running for president in 2024.

Using new survey data, this report highlights four main findings.

• The governors of all four states have positioned themselves to win reelection in 2022 by retaining the support of members of their state’s dominant party, rendering opposition by people outside that party largely irrelevant.[1]
• The four governors are on track to win reelection even though a large share of their constituents are dissatisfied with recent economic and social trends.
• Many residents of these states are considering moving elsewhere, most frequently those (such as Republicans in California and New York) who disagree with their state’s dominant political orientation. Many are interested in moving to a place where their neighbors would have political and policy preferences closer to their own.
• After their expected reelections, at least two of these governors–DeSantis and Newsom–are positioned to carry their states’ policy visions into a national competition for the presidency.

Three Hundred Seventy-Six Officers Failed to Stop the Uvalde Massacre

Law enforcement in the United States is decentralized and fragmented.  Sometimes the system works well. During the Uvalde Massacre, it did not.

INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE ON THE ROBB ELEMENTARY SHOOTING TEXAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, INTERIM REPORT 2022 

In total, 376 law enforcement officers responded to the tragedy at Robb Elementary School. The breakdown of responders, by agency, is as follows.

• 149 United States Border Patrol
• 91 Texas Department of Public Safety
• 25 Uvalde Police Department
• 16 San Antonio Police Department (SWAT)
• 16 Uvalde County Sheriff ’s Office
• 14 Department of Homeland Security – HIS
• 13 United States Marshals
• 8 Drug Enforcement Agency
• 7 Frio County Sheriff ’s Office
• 5 Kinney County Sheriff ’s Office
• 5 Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District
• 4 Dilley Police Department
• 4 Zavala County Sheriff ’s Office
• 3 Medina County Sheriff ’s Office
• 3 Sabinal Police Department
• 2 City of Uvalde Fire Marshals
• 2 Pearsall Police Department
• 2 Texas Parks and Wildlife
• 2 Uvalde County Constables
• 2 Val Verde County Sheriff ’s Office
• 1 Frio County Constables
• 1 Southwest Texas Junior College
• 1 Zavala County Constables 

Secession

The Texas GOP has adopted a platform calling for a public vote on secession.

Moscow must be happy.

Upon request by the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), NewKnowledge reviewed an expansive data set of social media posts and metadata provided toSSCI by Facebook, Twitter, and Alphabet, plus a set of related data from additional platforms.The data sets were provided by the three primary platforms to serve as evidence for aninvestigation into the Internet Research Agency (IRA) influence operations. 

 The Internet Research Agency has been implicated in the promotion of secessionist and insurrectionist movements in several countries; there is no sowing of division quite so pronounced as attempting to create a literal territorial split. In Europe, this took the form of involvement in Brexit and Catalonian independence efforts. In the United States, it was #Texit and #Calexit, as well as active support for the Bundy ranch and Malheur Reserve standoffs.

The vote in favor of Brexit, which happened on June 23, 2016, was subsequently used by the IRA to promote its Texas Secession initiatives. Brexit narratives were shared on the Instagram account @rebeltexas as a justification for #Texit, as well as on @_americafirst_and @mericanfury to encourage American isolationism and a retreat from involvement in global affairs. The Facebook Page Heart of Texas posted about secession with some regularity, and coordinated real-world pro-secession demonstrations across the state using Facebook Events. 

Apportionment and Population

From the Census Bureau:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the 2020 Census shows the resident population of the United States on April 1, 2020, was 331,449,281.

The U.S. resident population represents the total number of people living in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The resident population increased by 22,703,743 or 7.4% from 308,745,538 in 2010.
...

The new resident population statistics for the United States, each of the 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico are available on census.gov.

• The most populous state was California (39,538,223); the least populous was Wyoming (576,851).
• The state that gained the most numerically since the 2010 Census was Texas (up 3,999,944 to 29,145,505).
• The fastest-growing state since the 2010 Census was Utah (up 18.4% to 3,271,616).
• Puerto Rico's resident population was 3,285,874, down 11.8% from 3,725,789 in the 2010 Census.

In addition to these newly released statistics, today Secretary Raimondo delivered to President Biden the population counts to be used for apportioning the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. In accordance with Title 2 of the U.S. Code, a congressionally defined formula is applied to the apportionment population to distribute the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives among the states.

The apportionment population consists of the resident population of the 50 states, plus the overseas military and federal civilian employees and their dependents living with them overseas who could be allocated to a home state. The populations of the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico are excluded from the apportionment population because they do not have voting seats in Congress. The counts of overseas federal employees (and their dependents) are used for apportionment purposes only.

After the 1790 Census, each member of the House represented about 34,000 residents. Since then, the House has more than quadrupled in size (from 105 to 435 seats), and each member will represent an average of 761,169 people based on the 2020 Census.

Texas will gain two seats in the House of Representatives, five states will gain one seat each (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon), seven states will lose one seat each (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia), and the remaining states’ number of seats will not change based on the 2020 Census.

Upon receipt of the apportionment counts, the president will transmit them to the 117th Congress. The reapportioned Congress will be the 118th, which convenes in January 2023.

“Our work doesn’t stop here,” added acting Director Jarmin. “Now that the apportionment counts are delivered, we will begin the additional activities needed to create and deliver the redistricting data that were previously delayed due to COVID-19.”

Redistricting data include the local area counts states need to redraw or “redistrict” legislative boundaries. Due to modifications to processing activities, COVID-19 data collections delays, and the Census Bureau’s obligation to provide high-quality data, states are expected to receive redistricting data by August 16, and the full redistricting data with toolkits for ease of use will be delivered by September 30. The Census Bureau will notify the public prior to releasing the data.

Texas v. Califoria, California v. Texas

Our colleague Kenneth Miller has a new book titled Texas vs. California (Oxford University Press, 2020)

Texas and California are the leaders of Red and Blue America. As the nation has polarized, its most populous and economically powerful states have taken charge of the opposing camps. These states now advance sharply contrasting political and policy agendas and view themselves as competitors for control of the nation's future. Kenneth P. Miller provides a detailed account of the rivalry's emergence, present state, and possible future. First, he explores why, despite their many similarities, the two states have become so deeply divided. As he shows, they experienced critical differences in their origins and in their later demographic, economic, cultural, and political development. Second, he describes how Texas and California have constructed opposing, comprehensive policy models--one conservative, the other progressive. Miller highlights the states' contrasting policies in five areas--tax, labor, energy and environment, poverty, and social issues--and also shows how Texas and California have led the red and blue state blocs in seeking to influence federal policy in these areas. The book concludes by assessing two models' strengths, vulnerabilities, and future prospects. The rivalry between the two states will likely continue for the foreseeable future, because California will surely stay blue and Texas will likely remain red. The challenge for the two states, and for the nation as a whole, is to view the competition in a positive light and turn it to productive ends. Exploring one of the primary rifts in American politics, Texas vs. California sheds light on virtually every aspect of the country's political system.

Fittingly, the two states are at odds in an important upcoming Supreme Court case. 

Oyez sums California v. Texas:

In 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) against a constitutional challenge by characterizing the penalty for not buying health insurance as a tax, which Congress has the power to impose. In 2017, the Republican-controlled Congress enacted an amendment to the ACA that set the penalty for not buying health insurance to zero, but it left the rest of the ACA in place. Texas and several other states and individuals filed a lawsuit in federal court challenging the individual mandate again, arguing that because the penalty was zero, it can no longer be characterized as a tax and is therefore unconstitutional. California and several other states joined the lawsuit to defend the individual mandate.

The federal district court held that the individual mandate is now unconstitutional and that as a result, the entire ACA is invalidated because the individual mandate cannot be “severed” from the rest of the Act. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit upheld the district court’s conclusion but remanded the case for reconsideration of whether any part of the ACA survives in the absence of the individual mandate. The Supreme Court granted California’s petition for review, as well as Texas’s cross-petition for review.

Juneteenth

From Juneteenth.com:

Juneteenth is the oldest nationally celebrated commemoration of the ending of slavery in the United States. Dating back to 1865, it was on June 19th that the Union soldiers, led by Major General Gordon Granger, landed at Galveston, Texas with news that the war had ended and that the enslaved were now free. Note that this was two and a half years after President Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation - which had become official January 1, 1863. The Emancipation Proclamation had little impact on the Texans due to the minimal number of Union troops to enforce the new Executive Order. However, with the surrender of General Lee in April of 1865, and the arrival of General Granger’s regiment, the forces were finally strong enough to influence and overcome the resistance.

Later attempts to explain this two and a half year delay in the receipt of this important news have yielded several versions that have been handed down through the years. Often told is the story of a messenger who was murdered on his way to Texas with the news of freedom. Another is that the news was deliberately withheld by the enslavers to maintain the labor force on the plantations. And still another is that federal troops actually waited for the slave owners to reap the benefits of one last cotton harvest before going to Texas to enforce the Emancipation Proclamation. All of which, or none of these versions could be true. Certainly, for some, President Lincoln's authority over the rebellious states was in question. Whatever the reasons, conditions in Texas remained status quo well beyond what was statutory.

General Order Number 3

One of General Granger’s first orders of business was to read to the people of Texas, General Order Number 3 which began most significantly with:

"The people of Texas are informed that in accordance with a Proclamation from the Executive of the United States, all slaves are free. This involves an absolute equality of rights and rights of property between former masters and slaves, and the connection heretofore existing between them becomes that between employer and hired laborer."

Textbook Politics in California and Texas

Dana Goldstein at NYT:

The textbooks cover the same sweeping story, from the brutality of slavery to the struggle for civil rights. The self-evident truths of the founding documents to the waves of immigration that reshaped the nation.

The books have the same publisher. They credit the same authors. But they are customized for students in different states, and their contents sometimes diverge in ways that reflect the nation’s deepest partisan divides.

Hundreds of differences — some subtle, others extensive — emerged in a New York Times analysis of eight commonly used American history textbooks in California and Texas, two of the nation’s largest markets.

...
California and Texas textbooks sometimes offer different explanations for white backlash to black advancement after the Civil War, from Reconstruction to housing discrimination in the 20th century.

Southern whites resisted Reconstruction, according to a McGraw-Hill textbook, because they “did not want African-Americans to have more rights.” But the Texas edition offers an additional reason: Reforms cost money, and that meant higher taxes.

Whole paragraphs on redlining and restrictive deeds appear only in the California editions of textbooks, partly as a result of different state standards. Texas’ social studies guidelines do not mention housing discrimination at all.

The Disasters of 2017

BREAKING: What may be millions of water bottles. meant for victims of Hurricane Maria, have been sitting on a runway in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, since last year, according to @FEMA, which confirmed the news to me, late tonight, after pictures, posted today on social media, went viral. pic.twitter.com/jidGJAvCyJ

— David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) September 12, 2018

From the Government Accountability Office:

The federal government provided significant support to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in response to Hurricanes Irma and Maria, but faced numerous challenges that complicated response efforts. FEMA efforts in Puerto Rico alone were the largest and longest single response in the agency's history. As of April 2018, FEMA had obligated over $12 billion for response and recovery for Hurricane Maria (see figure below) reflecting the scale and complexity of efforts given the widespread damage. FEMA tasked federal agencies with over 1,000 response mission assignments for Hurricanes Maria and Irma in the territories at a cost of over $5 billion, compared to about 400 such assignments for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma and the California wildfires combined. For example, FEMA assigned the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers the mission to install over 1,700 emergency electricity generators in Puerto Rico, compared to the 310 for the response to Hurricane Katrina.

Nevertheless, GAO found that FEMA faced a number of challenges that slowed and complicated its response efforts to Hurricane Maria, particularly in Puerto Rico. Many of these challenges were also highlighted in FEMA's own 2017 hurricane after action report, including:

• the sequential and overlapping timing of the three hurricanes—with Maria being the last of the three—caused staffing shortages and required FEMA to shift staff to the territories that were already deployed to other disasters;

• logistical challenges complicated efforts to deploy federal resources and personnel quickly given the remote distance of both territories; and

• limited preparedness by the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a Category 5 hurricane and incapacitation of local response functions due to widespread devastation and loss of power and communications led FEMA to assume response functions that territories would usually perform themselves.

The 2017 hurricanes and wildfires highlighted some longstanding issues and revealed other emerging response and recovery challenges. For example, the concurrent timing and scale of the disaster damages nationwide caused shortages in available debris removal contractors and delays in removing disaster debris—a key first step in recovery. In addition, FEMA's available workforce was overwhelmed by the response needs. For example, at the height of FEMA workforce deployments in October 2017, 54 percent of staff were serving in a capacity in which they did not hold the title of “Qualified”—according to FEMA's qualification system standards—a past challenge GAO has identified. FEMA officials noted that staff shortages, and lack of trained personnel with program expertise led to complications in its response efforts, particularly after Hurricane Maria.

Colonias

Parker Abt at WP:

One might think that colonias are just communities of immigrants living in the United States illegally, but most colonia residents are full-fledged American citizens. As citizens and taxpayers, residents demand and deserve the same basic government services as everyone else.

This begs the question: How does the United States, one of the richest countries in the world, allow third-world shantytowns to exist within its borders and house its citizens?

Colonias are communities usually built near the U.S.-Mexico border by poor Hispanic immigrants. For the federal government, the defining element of a colonia is that it has no access to clean water. These communities are the result of Texas’s light regulatory system combined with the construction of colonias on cheap, unused land outside of established city limits.

Colonia land is so cheap partly because it is prone to flooding. Children often have trouble attending school because they cannot reach school buses after overnight thunderstorms flood the streets near their houses. This further deprives families of education as a path out of poverty.

Perceptions of Bias

A release from the University of Texas at Austin:

More Americans not only distrust the federal government, but also distrust the news media since the 2016 election. Those are some of the findings in a new study from researchers at The University of Texas at Austin, which showed that 49 percent of Americans believe Washington will do what is right “hardly ever or never,” compared with 45 percent one year ago.

Additionally, the percentage of Americans who check the accuracy of news “all or most of the time” has increased to 38 percent from 24 percent a year ago, and the percentage of Americans who perceived a liberal bias in the news media has increased to 42 percent from 35 percent.

The Texas Media and Society Survey, conducted by researchers at the Annette Strauss Institute for Civic Life in the Moody College of Communication, sampled more than 1,000 Americans and 1,000 Texans. The survey was first conducted in June 2016 and again in June 2017.

Researchers found that despite an increased perception of bias, the public believes the news media are doing a better job of holding elected officials accountable. Sixty-seven percent of Americans agreed that the news media “need to do more to hold political candidates or elected officials accountable,” compared with 74 percent one year ago.
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Other key findings from the 2017 survey:

• Democrats’ perceptions of liberal bias in news media increased to 23 percent (from 14 percent in 2016).
• Distrust of the federal government also increased among Texans to 46 percent (from 42 percent in 2016).
• Distrust of state government decreased to 36 percent from 39 percent the previous year.
• Among Texans, distrust in their state government increased to 31 percent (from 26 percent in 2016).
• Eighty-three percent of Americans and 84 percent of Texans regularly encounter news stories about politics and government online that they believe to be “not fully accurate.”
• Sixty-nine percent of Americans and 70 percent of Texans encounter news about politics and government online that they believe are “almost completely made up.”
• Among Texans, 65 percent agreed that the news media “need to do more to hold political candidates or elected officials accountable” (down from 78 percent in 2016).
• Fifty-four percent of Americans who regularly watch Fox News and 82 percent who regularly listen to Rush Limbaugh network perceive a strong liberal bias in news media.
• By contrast, between 15 and 37 percent who receive news from other news outlets perceive a strong liberal bias in news media.

Hispanic Population

Jens Manuel Krogstad writes at Pew:

Asians had the highest annual growth rate (3.0%) of any major U.S. racial or ethnic group in 2017. The Hispanic growth rate followed at 2.0%, exceeding that of blacks (0.9%) and whites (decrease of <0 .1="" a=""> Overall, the U.S. annual population growth rate has held steady at 0.7% since 2011.

Following a Hispanic population boom in the 1990s that was driven by immigration and high fertility rates, the Hispanic population’s annual growth rate peaked at 4.2% in 2001. It then started to decline as fertility rates fell and immigration slowed, a trend that accelerated during the Great Recession. While the foreign born accounted for 40% of Hispanic annual population growth in 2006, that share dropped to 34% by 2015. Fertility rates declined from a peak of 98.3 births per 1,000 Hispanic women in 2006 to 71.7 in 2015.

Despite its slowing growth rate, the Hispanic population continues to expand, reaching a record 58.6 million in 2017, according to the Census Bureau’s latest estimates. As the second-largest racial or ethnic group in the U.S., Hispanics play a significant role in the nation’s population trends. Overall, the U.S. population increased by more than 2.2 million people between 2016 and 2017, with Hispanics accounting for 1.1 million, or about half (51%), of this growth.

California, Texas, and Florida account for more than half of the nation's Hispanic population.

Pennsylvania, Texas and Special Education

Reposted from Autism Policy and Politics:

In The Politics of Autism, I discuss special education.  Some states do a reasonably good job, but Texas is not one of them.

At The Houston Chronicle, Susan Carroll and Brian M. Rosenthal report on a girl with Asperger's who made great progress after her dad moved from Texas to Pennsylvania. (h/t FRL)

Pennsylvania does not have a special education enrollment target — no state does, other than Texas — but it does fund special ed in an unusual way.

The state assumes that roughly 16 percent of students need special ed and funds all school districts at that rate, regardless of how many special ed kids they actually have.

The state's rationale for choosing that number was simple — it was the state average at the time, according to Casey Smith, an education department spokesman. But before implementing the system, officials also called in experts and hosted public forums across the state, Smith said.

That approach is far different than what took place in Texas, when a small group of officials set a benchmark well below the state average without consulting the public, the federal government or any researchers.

The Pennsylvania system is good because it does not incentivize either under-identification or over-identification, several experts said.

Pennsylvania law also is praised for requiring schools to respond to verbal requests from parents for special education evaluations, instead of only written requests.

As a result, about 17 percent of students receive special education,  a 1.5 percentage point increase from 2004, according to the latest federal data.