The State of the 2012 Campaign

The Fundamentals:

• Forecasting presidential elections -- 2012 
• Where do the poll numbers stand?
• GDP
• The Electoral College

Gasoline Prices as a Problem for the President

• High gas prices give an opening to the out-party
• Republicans are using the issue this year

Congressional Elections

• Incumbency advantage
• The Senate is in play  

Just remember:  there is no new thing under the sun.