Partisan and Nonpartisan Polls

Election analyst Stuart Rothenberg writes:

When I’m presented with two polls, one conducted by a well-regarded Republican or Democratic pollster and the other by a “nonpartisan” pollster or state media outlet, I often place greater weight on the partisan pollster’s numbers, especially if I regard the pollster highly.

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So why should anyone place more faith in partisan pollsters than in “neutral” polls?

Everyone agrees polling gets harder each election cycle. “It’s not just response bias, which favors the party that is winning in a particular cycle,” one veteran partisan pollster told me. “It’s a lot of things. Young people have cell phones, everyone has caller ID, so many people won’t take the call.”

Nonpartisan pollsters simply have less at stake in getting the right numbers in their polls. Sure, there is personal pride involved, but usually those pollsters are conducting surveys for local media outlets that simply want numbers to put in their newspapers or on local TV news. Often, these nonpartisan pollsters were established to promote an educational institution’s visibility.

Campaign pollsters have much more at stake. Their numbers drive campaign strategy, with victory or defeat of their candidate hanging in the balance. Their numbers have to be correct.

Partisan pollsters also argue that they spend more time making certain their samples reflect the actual electorate, even if it means incurring additional costs.

“Survey research depends on the dedication of the pollster to get it right. There are procedures when hiring the lowest bidder makes sense. Polling isn’t one of them,” said one partisan campaign pollster who isn’t a fan of many nonpartisan district and statewide polls.