Redistricting, as we explain in the text, helps determine House election outcomes by deciding the makeup of the constituencies.
Redistricting Partners has analyzed a preliminary staff draft from the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. The lines are subject to modification, but suggest major political changes in 2012:
- "The city of Sacramento was placed with Elk Grove creating a Democratic district. To the east, a suburban Sacramento County district is created with Democratic and Republican registration numbers on par. This could be a chance for a strong Democrat to take out Dan Lungren. Tom McClintock is listed as his home in Elk Grove, but he will be moved to his district to the east."
- "Western and southern portions of the San Fernando Valley were drawn into a district that extends into the Ventura County’s Conejo Valley. This would make the San Fernando Valley vote most important in the district. Brad Sherman and Howard Berman are drawn into the same seat, but this is much more a Brad Sherman district based on where these two members of congress have run and won in the past."
- "Importantly, this set of lines provides just two strong African American seats, with Karen Bass and Maxine Waters drawn into one, and the other vacant."
- "The commission drew their initial visualizations in a way that ensures Republican control behind the Orange Curtain. The only Democratic seat, currently held by Laura Richardson [sic: they mean Loretta Sanchez], is drawn into beach communities which gives her a Republican advantage and pairs her with Dana Rorabacher. It can also be seen in this map that her sister, Linda Sanchez, is put into a Long Beach Congressional seat with Laura Richardson. Ouch."