Saturday, October 1, 2011

Colorado and the Electoral College

Our chapter on campaigns and elections discusses electoral college strategy. Smaller swing states can have an outsized impact on the outcome. The Colorado Independent reports:
Experts say Colorado could be the state that tips the 2012 presidential election. “It will be hard to win a close election without winning Colorado,” said Colorado College political science professor Bob Loevy.

It’s not just local political observers who think Colorado will be key. In a front page story today, The New York Times reports that Obama’s hopes for a second term may come down to Colorado and a couple of other states.

...
Loevy said he and other Colorado political scientists have been talking about Colorado’s shifting demographic for years.

“The New York Times has caught up with what we’ve been saying for some time. The political changes in Colorado have now passed into the general public currency,” Loevy said.
...
Loevy, an activist Republican himself, said he expects the Colorado Republican caucuses will probably come down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. Perry, he said, will appeal to the Tea Party side of the party, while Romney will appeal more to traditional Republicans. He says high turnout will favor Romney, while a lower turnout will favor Perry in Colorado.

“Romney has the best chance to lure the upscale educated Republicans back into the party. If Romney can win, it will be good for the party. Clearly, Mitt Romney would have the best chance in the general election. I expect a real fight in Colorado, though, where traditionally the conservatives will come out strong in the caucuses and the primary.”