The 2012 Election: What Will Matter, What Won't Matter, What Might Matter

(Revised 4/27/12)


What Will Matter

• National priorities
• Forecasting presidential elections -- 2012 
• GDP
• A different model
• Income
• Where do the poll numbers stand?
• The Electoral College

What Won't Matter

• Romney and Dogs
• Obama and Dogs
• Charisma

What Might Matter

• The vice presidency
• The ground war
• Turnout (see 2008 data)

Congressional Elections

• Incumbency advantage
• The Senate is in play  

Just remember:  there is no new thing under the sun.