The state of the presidential race
Lots of things could happen...
Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.
-- Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense under Ford and Bush 43
The Known Knowns
- Biden is the oldest-ever president, and the oldest-ever major candidate. Trump is close behind.
- Trump seeks to be the first former president since Cleveland to regain the White House.
- Trump is the first major-party candidate to run while under indictment. There was a minor-party candidate who got a million votes while in prison
- The nomination phase came to a very early close.
The Known Unknowns
- Inflation. We know what it has been. What will it be in the autumn?
- Biden's policy on the Middle East is controversial. How will the crisis play out in the months ahead?
- Border crossings have increased. What happens next?
- Third-party candidates are running. Will their support hold up?
The Unknown Unknowns
- Candidate health crises
- Election disruptions
- Violence
- Global conflicts: China, other regions
- Natural disaster
- UFO
- Others? Use your imagination...
