Many posts have discussed crime in the United States.
German Lopez at NYT:The last year was often tumultuous and chaotic, but it ended with good news: Murders and crime in general declined across the country throughout 2024.
I know some of you will be skeptical about the trend. You may have seen reports about the problems with national crime data. The F.B.I. recently had to revise its own numbers, showing that violent crime actually increased in 2022 — not decreased, as it previously reported. Can you really trust nT:ational crime statistics?
But here at The Morning, we have never relied on the F.B.I.’s data. We use figures directly from local and state police departments, independently compiled in the Real-Time Crime Index by the crime analyst Jeff Asher’s team.
The data contains a lot of good news. First, the drop in murders that began in 2022 has accelerated. Murders fell so quickly that 2024 could have ended with fewer murders than the year before the pandemic. The nationwide murder rate was still on track to be higher than it was during its lowest point ever recorded, in 2014, but not much higher. (The 2024 data is up-to-date through October.)
Why does the public think crime is rising? Thankfully, very few Americans have firsthand experience with murder. By contrast, many have witnessed the effects of lower-level crimes such as shoplifting. For instance, many drugstores have put certain items behind plastic barriers.
Isabelle Taft and Kate Selig at NYT:
“The numbers are falling back to earth, but a combination of high-profile national incidents and street-level disorder are keeping people on edge,” said Adam Gelb, president and C.E.O. of the Council on Criminal Justice.
Charles Fain Lehman, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, said the perception of disorder, including shoplifting and public drug use, may help explain Americans’ worries, even though “major crime is objectively very rare.”
In 23 cities, shoplifting was up by about 25 percent in the first half of 2024, according to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, though it noted it was unclear whether that was because of more reporting by retailers. Shoplifting increased by nearly 40 percent in California in 2023, according to the state’s Justice Department.
California voters overwhelmingly passed a ballot measure imposing harsher penalties for shoplifting and drug possession. In Los Angeles and Oakland, they turned out liberal district attorneys who had promised to reduce incarceration and hold the police accountable.
