Influencing, Lobbying, and Shadow Lobbying
Bruce Mehlman:Federal lobbying expenditures are tracking to exceed $5 billion in 2025, the highest amount ever (both nominally and inflation-adjusted, though not as a share of GDP). Registered lobbying activities are transparent and highly-disclosed, while broader influence spending is not.
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While $5 billion is a lot of money, spending on registered lobbying activity is less than half as much as what we spend on Halloween, ~1/3 of what Americans spend at car washes each year and less than 10% of what we annually drop on power boating.
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Effective influence campaigns aim for information “surround sound.” Lobbying (i.e. person-to-person discussions with policy makers & staff) is one of many activities needed for an impactful influence campaign that shapes the information environment in which policymakers understand and consider issues and determine what is in the best interests of their constituents, values and political ambitions.
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Influence campaigns regularly tap the talents of lawyers, PR professionals, grassroots organizers, fundraisers, online influencers and countless others, most of whose activities remain undisclosed. Some estimate the size of the “shadow lobbying” community as equal to the number of registered lobbyists, while others argue it is at least 13x as large. Only those who spend at least 20% of their time on federal lobbying activity need to register as official “lobbyists,” with a great many “19%’ers” carefully monitoring their time allocations to remain unregistered / under the RADAR.
