Running Out of Munitions

Many posts have discussed war powers and the US military.  The Iran War has been a disaster.  We are running low on munitions.

 Bruce Mehlman:

Summer Lesson: There’s a new missile gap (how many we have vs how many we need)

Fall Question: Can America rearm faster, smarter & in time to deter?

The Constitution and Election Law

Previous posts have discussed authoritarian moves by the executive branch.

U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani, found the new Postal Service rule on mail-in ballots is likely unlawful and unconstitutional,

The Elections Clause of the Constitution provides: 

The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of ch[oo]sing Senators. U.S. CONST. art. I, § 4, cl. 1. 

“[T]hese comprehensive words embrace authority to provide a complete code for congressional elections, not only as to times and places, but in relation to notices, registration, supervision of voting, protection of voters, prevention of fraud and corrupt practices, [and] counting of votes[.]” Smiley v. Holm, 285 U.S. 355, 366 (1932). “In practice, the Clause functions as ‘a default provision; it invests the States with responsibility for the mechanics of congressional elections, but only so far as Congress declines to pre-empt state legislative choices.’” Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona, Inc., 570 U.S. 1, 9 (2013) (quoting Foster v. Love, 522 U.S. 67, 69 (1997)). “Because the power the Elections Clause confers is none other than the power to pre-empt, the reasonable assumption is that the statutory text accurately communicates the scope of Congress’s preemptive intent. . . . Unlike the States’ historic police powers, the States’ role in regulating congressional elections . . . has always existed subject to the express qualification that it terminates according to federal law.” Id. at 1415 (citation modified).  

 Accordingly, as to the time, place, and manner of federal elections, the Elections Clause “grants Congress ‘the power to override state regulations’ by establishing uniform rules for federal elections, binding on the States.” Foster, 522 U.S. at 69 (quoting U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton, 514 U.S. 779, 832–33 (1995)).13  

...

The Constitution does not grant the President any specific powers over elections.14 Broadly, the Constitution vests the President with “executive Power” and commands him to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed[.]” U.S. CONST. art. II, §§ 1, 3. The President “plays no direct role in the process” of appointing electors, “nor does he have authority to control the state officials who do.” Trump v. United States, 603 U.S. 593, 627 (2024). As the Supreme Court has observed, “the President’s power to see that the laws are faithfully executed refutes the idea that he is to be a lawmaker.” Medellín v. Texas, 552 U.S. 491, 526–27 (2008) (quoting Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer, 343 U.S. 579, 587 (1952)). 

Attitudes Toward Muslims

 Many posts have discussed the role of religion in American life.  

Besheer Mohamed at Pew:

The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, have had a lasting impact on Muslims in the United States. Muslim Americans shared in the nation’s grief and fear that day, and in the months and years that followed, they carried the additional burden of being singled out for suspicion.

Twenty-five years later, some Americans still see Islam and Muslims through the lens of 9/11. Yet Muslims are a growing, vibrant part of America’s religious tapestry, one that has become more politically visible in recent years.

In a Pew Research Center survey this spring, 43% of U.S. adults said Muslims are less patriotic than other Americans, and 42% said Muslim Americans are having a negative impact on the country.

When asked to explain those views in their own words, some survey respondents referred explicitly to the events of 2001 with answers such as “Due to 9/11,” “Remember the twin towers?” and “Fear of another 911 terrorist attack.”

By some measures, public attitudes toward Islam have become more negative than they were immediately after the 9/11 attacks. In March 2002, just six months after the al-Qaida attacks, 25% of U.S. adults said the Islamic religion is more likely than other religions to encourage violence. In 11 subsequent polls, that figure has never been lower than 38%, and in the past decade it has hovered between 45% and 52%. Early this year, about half of U.S. adults surveyed (51%) said Islam encourages violence more than other religions do.

Views on Islam have also become more politically polarized. In this year’s poll, Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP were far more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to say Islam encourages violence (76% vs. 29%). In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, the partisan gap was much smaller (32% vs. 23%), perhaps reflecting a messaging campaign by then-President George W. Bush, who called Islam a religion of peace.

Research Fall 2026

 Watch this clip from The Wire.  It is the best description of research, ever.

Interview tips from

• UNR
• Harvard

Hardcopy souces

• Library of Congress
• National Archives

AI

• Always get guidance from your instructor or supervisor about rules and limits.
• Problems:
• Hallucination still happens.
• Can be embarrassing if it is part of public or constituent communication and critics catch on.
• Absent a blanket prohibition on AI, it is usually okay to use it to identify sources.  "Provide sources and links" is a useful part of a prompt. See sites that specialize in finding relevant documents.  For instance: https://consensus.app/

The Internet Archive—if a link is broken or altered, this site might help you find it.  (example: go back to 2024 to find https://www.cdc.gov/global-health/observances/gbv.html)

Great stuff at Honnold Library -- which students usually overlook!

• Nexis Uni: news sources and law journals
• Political science journals
• Dissertation abstracts (search for "California" and "redistricting" in abstracts, and you will see a couple of Rose Institute names)

General Public Policy and Finance

• CRS
• CBO
• GAO
• GovInfo
• Budgets
• Biden White House Archives
• FRED: Federal Reserve Economic Data
  
• Census
• Bureau of Labor Statistics

Congress

• Congress.gov
• Govtrack

Crime

• Bureau of Justice Statistics
• Prisoner statistics
• Crime data explorer
• Gun Violence Archive

Health

• Local data
• HealthData.gov
• Kaiser Family Foundation

National Elections, Parties, Campaign Finance

• Precinct-level national maps
• 2016
• 2020
• 2024 
• US Presidential Election Atlas -- just what the title says, great historical data (but note the unusual color scheme: red is D, blue is R)
• US Elections Project -- turnout data
• Open Secrets -- Center for Responsive Politics site for federal campaign finance and lobbying e information
• FEC -- Federal Election Commission
• FCC Public Inspection Files (ad buys on broadcast stations)

Public Opinion

• Polling Report -- an aggregation of national poll data
• Gallup -- the best-known US pollster, delivering new numbers daily
• Pew Research Center
• 2018 exit poll
• 2020 exit poll
• 2024 exit poll

Immigrant Truck Drivers and Context

 Many posts have discussed immigration.

Erkki Forster at The Daily Beast:

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was basking in the spotlight over his crackdown on foreign truck drivers when a reporter pulled some inconvenient receipts from his own department.

President Donald Trump has long made undocumented truck drivers a target of his anti-immigrant rhetoric, casting them as a threat behind the wheel and claiming last month that they were “killing a lot of people.”

On Monday, Duffy took up the president’s cause, appearing before cameras in Detroit to announce that he was shutting down 110 truck driving schools, claiming a DOT analysis found 5,000 violations of federal safety standards requiring licensees to demonstrate English proficiency.

“If you’re here illegally and you can’t speak the language and you’re not well-trained, you don’t deserve to be in a big rig, driving American roads, endangering American citizens,” the Fox host-turned-transportation secretary said.

But Duffy’s press conference, which was attended by Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullinin, was derailed when a reporter cited DOT data that poked holes in the crackdown.

“According to the U.S. Department of Transportation in 2025, only 17 foreign-born drivers holding immigrant or non-documented [commercial driver’s licenses] were responsible in fatal accidents,” the reporter said, as Duffy appeared to look down at his notes. “The slant here has been strongly about illegals, foreign drivers, but yet it accounts, according to U.S. DOT stats I see, for one percent of the issue.”

The reporter noted that a far higher share of drivers involved in fatal large-truck crashes did not have a commercial driver’s license. And Duffy’s actions have reduced the number of schools available to prepare drivers for the road.

Duffy, 54, brushed past the numbers and denied that his shutdown of the driving schools over English proficiency standards had much to do with immigrants.

The Pentagon's Influencers

 Many posts have discussed social media. 

Dan Lamothe and Tara Copp at WP:

The Pentagon has secretly installed several conservative military veterans with large online followings in government roles, declining to disclose their assignments as they amplify Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s viewpoints and attack those who scrutinize the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter and corroborating material.

At least some of the influencers have been assigned to civilian roles that could lead to changes in policy, the people familiar with the matter said. Like others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Neither the Pentagon nor those involved have disclosed the government roles despite the Trump administration’s claims that they are running the most transparent Defense Department ever.

Those involved include Rob Maness, a retired Air Force colonel, and Kurt Schlichter, a retired Army colonel, people familiar with the matter said. Pentagon records reviewed by The Washington Post show that both have active official government email addresses as of this past week and are assigned to the office of Anthony Tata, the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness. The email addresses include a “.civ” suffix, meaning they are labeled as civilian employees, rather than as military personnel or contractors.

Both served for decades in uniform and, since retiring, have turned from the military to conservative commentary. Maness has more than 135,000 followers on X, while Schlichter has nearly 620,000.

Another retired Army colonel and influencer, Thomas Anderson, was listed in Pentagon records earlier this year with a “.civ” email address and assigned to Tata’s office, according to people familiar with the matter and records reviewed by The Post. An attorney, he writes online under the pen name Cynical Publius and has more than 323,000 followers on X. He was no longer listed in Pentagon records late this past week, the people familiar with the issue said.

The assignments for all three have not previously been reported. Questions have been raised online about influencers’ connections with the Pentagon, including in an article last week by the Bulwark

.

Iran and Overstretch

Many posts have discussed war powers and the US military.  The Iran War has been a disaster.

Shelby Holliday, Michael R. Gordon, and Lara Seligman at WSJ:

The U.S. has rushed so many munitions to the Middle East to fight Iran that military planners are concerned the loss of firepower is diminishing America’s ability to defend against potential threats from China and Russia, said U.S. officials.

The cuts have been so deep that the U.S. inventories in Europe of PAC-3 Patriot air defense interceptors and Atacms surface-to-surface missiles are deemed to be “beyond critical,” some of the officials said.

The U.S. and Iran have mostly halted direct attacks in recent weeks. But refilling weapons stocks moved from countries like Japan, South Korea and Germany could take years, leaving soft spots in the U.S. global military posture even as Western military officials don’t assess that full-scale attacks by China and Russia are imminent, officials said.

In addition to Patriot interceptors, other European-based weapons have been drawn down to extremely low levels, including precision-strike missiles and guided rockets, officials added. Thaad antimissile interceptors and Merops counterdrone systems have also been sent from Europe to the Middle East, further diminishing supplies on the continent.

The shrinking inventories have led the U.S. European Command to adjust its operational plans, officials said. They have also increasingly led administration officials to assess that America couldn’t fully execute contingency plans to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion if it occurred in the near term, The Wall Street Journal has previously reported.

Alex Horton and Tara Copp at WP:

Several U.S. military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the U.S. homeland, according to people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief.

The warnings — detailed for Hegseth by the heads of the Army, Navy and Air Force and the four-star commanders overseeing U.S. operations throughout Europe, Asia and Latin America — appear in the Aug. 14 edition of the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (SDOB), these people said. They described the assessment to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because the document is classified.

As President Donald Trump has pressured Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept several U.S. provisions for ending the stalemated conflict, he has been adamant that all options remain available to him — including further military action. Consequently, U.S. Central Command, the headquarters responsible for prosecuting the Iran war, has kept a force of more than 50,000 troops on alert for months in case the president orders additional attacks.

The Aug. 14 orders book directs some troops deployed in the Middle East to remain there through September and some others into 2027, said those familiar with the document. The prospect of extending those forces further compelled military leaders to voice their concern, these people said.

Leaders of the U.S. European Command, the U.S. Pacific Command and the U.S. Southern Command, along with the Navy’s top admiral, responded with what is characterized in the SDOB as a “non-concur,” those familiar with the assessment said — meaning they disagree with the secretary’s order to extend their forces but will execute it nevertheless.