Criminal defendants make similar calculations every day, which explains why about 95 percent of felony convictions in the United States are based on guilty pleas. In federal courts, the percentage is even higher: about 98 percent in fiscal year 2025, according to the U.S. Sentencing Commission.
It is not hard to understand why criminal defendants almost never opt for trials. "At the federal level," the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers reports, "trial sentences are roughly three times higher than plea sentences for the same crime on average and sometimes as much as eight or ten times higher." The threat of a "trial penalty," which may include additional charges as well as longer sentences, has transformed a constitutional right into a legal fiction. While TV shows and movies still depict trials as the standard way criminal cases are handled, such showdowns have become vanishingly rare in the real world.
As the Supreme Court acknowledged in 2012, "criminal justice today is for the most part a system of pleas, not a system of trials." You might think the Court would have something to say about that situation. But for more than half a century, it was unfazed by the replacement of trials with plea bargains, which it described as "highly desirable" and "an essential component of the administration of justice." That attitude gave prosecutors free rein to coerce guilty pleas by threatening defendants with severe consequences if they insisted on making the government prove its case.
Bessette/Pitney’s AMERICAN GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS: DELIBERATION, DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP reviews the idea of "deliberative democracy." Building on the book, this blog offers insights, analysis, and facts about recent events.