President Obama's Popular Vote in Historical Perspective: A Preliminary Look

Two weeks after the election, the vote count is not yet complete.  As of yesterday, there were still 1.5 million unprocessed ballots in California alone.  Nevertheless, we have a reasonably good idea of popular vote percentages in the presidential race.  We have already put the electoral vote in historical perspective, so how does President Obama's share of the 2012 vote look?

The table below ranks winners since 1896 by share of popular vote.  President Obama is currently in a tie with George W. Bush in 2004. His percentage will probably tick up as the final votes come in, however, so we can make a preliminary estimate that his 2012 showing ranks 20th out of 30.

1	1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	61.05%
2	1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	60.80%
3	1972	Richard Nixon	60.67%
4	1920	Warren G. Harding	60.32%
5	1984	Ronald Reagan	58.77%
6	1928	Herbert Hoover	58.21%
7	1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt	57.41%
8	1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	57.37%
9	1904	Theodore Roosevelt	56.42%
10	1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower	55.18%
11	1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	54.74%
12	1924	Calvin Coolidge	54.04%
13	1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	53.39%
14	1988	George H.W. Bush	53.37%
15	2008	Barack Obama	52.87%
16	1900	William McKinley	51.64%
17	1908	William H. Taft	51.57%
18	1896	William McKinley	51.02%
19	1980	Ronald Reagan	50.75%
20	2004	George W. Bush	50.73%
21	2012	Barack Obama	50.73%
22	1976	Jimmy Carter	50.08%
23	1960	John F. Kennedy	49.72%
24	1948	Harry S. Truman	49.55%
25	1916	Woodrow Wilson	49.24%
26	1996	Bill Clinton	49.23%
27	2000	George W. Bush	47.87%
28	1968	Richard Nixon	43.42%
29	1992	Bill Clinton	43.01%
30	1912	Woodrow Wilson	41.84%

There is a problem with this method of ranking, however.  In some elections, a third-party candidate took a large share of the vote, so the winner's percentage may look artificially small.  In 1992 and 1996, for instance, Bill Clinton won handily even though H. Ross Perot kept his share below 50 percent.  So perhaps a better way of ranking is to look at the winning candidate's popular vote margin.  President Obama ties with Woodrow Wilson in 1916, but again we assume that his vote will increase slightly, so we can rank him 24th of 30.

1	1920	Warren G. Harding	26.17%
2	1924	Calvin Coolidge	25.22%
3	1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	24.26%
4	1972	Richard Nixon	23.15%
5	1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	22.58%
6	1904	Theodore Roosevelt	18.83%
7	1984	Ronald Reagan	18.21%
8	1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt	17.76%
9	1928	Herbert Hoover	17.41%
10	1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	15.40%
11	1912	Woodrow Wilson	14.44%
12	1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower	10.85%
13	1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	9.96%
14	1980	Ronald Reagan	9.74%
15	1908	William H. Taft	8.53%
16	1996	Bill Clinton	8.51%
17	1988	George H.W. Bush	7.72%
18	1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	7.50%
19	2008	Barack Obama	7.27%
20	1900	William McKinley	6.12%
21	1992	Bill Clinton	5.56%
22	1948	Harry S. Truman	4.48%
23	1896	William McKinley	4.31%
24	2012	Barack Obama	3.12%
25	1916	Woodrow Wilson	3.12%
26	2004	George W. Bush	2.46%
27	1976	Jimmy Carter	2.06%
28	1968	Richard Nixon	0.70%
29	1960	John F. Kennedy	0.17%
30	2000	George W. Bush	-0.51%