Many posts have dealt with tariffs and trade.
Data from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that overall inflation remained tame in June, but that prices were up sharply in some categories affected by tariffs, such as toys and appliances. The job market, too, is starting to show some cracks, and there are signs consumers have begun to pull back their spending.
Economists expect that evidence to mount in the months ahead, as companies use up inventories built up before the tariffs took effect and begin passing costs on to customers.
“It was always going to take a few months to filter into the hard data,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University.
Economists once expected a much steeper slowdown. But those dire predictions came in response to the punishingly high tariff rates that Mr. Trump announced in early April. Those policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China as well.
Even the reduced tariff rates are the highest in decades, and most economists are confident that the policies — and the uncertainty surrounding them — will lead to faster inflation and slower growth. But the damage will be subtler and more gradual than if the duties that Mr. Trump announced in April had taken effect.
