Canada Played Trade Hardball with the Midterm
Liz Crampton, Zi-Ann Lum and Daniel Desrochers at POLITICO:A trade deal was imminent. Top negotiators from the United States and Canada were holed up in a dreary building in southwest D.C., working on the details of an agreement to finally end hostilities that had wreaked havoc on both countries’ economies and a once close diplomatic and military relationship. But then, two hours before the Aug. 22 tariff deadline, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney instructed his negotiators to walk away. That night, the U.S. responded, imposing a 50% tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods like wood pulp, hockey equipment and industrial machinery.
Carney’s government had been watching the trade negotiation deadline with an eye to a different clock ticking down: two months until Trump’s constituents went to the polls. For Canadian leaders who had spent a decade testing strategies to confront an increasingly adversarial neighbor, the electoral calendar was a new source of bargaining power to explore.
For months, embassy officials in Washington had been working with analysts from the federal finance department and foreign ministry in Ottawa to scour the country’s tariff schedules to understand where changes would be felt on the midterm electoral map. Experiencing a localized hit in their states and districts, Canadian officials knew, might be the only thing that would inspire Republicans to reconsider their acceptance of Trump’s trade policies. That leverage would only intensify as Election Day approached with affordability concerns atop voters’ minds.
“We’re also targeting products that will target states in the U.S.,” Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said at a press conference in Ottawa four days after the talks collapsed. “We’re being wise and strategic to put political pressure.”
