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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Appraising the Predictions

The predictions of this blog were not too far off from the actual election results.

President Obama carried Virginia and Colorado:  the blog called them for Romney.  The president also has a slight lead in Florida, which the blog called for Romney, but the state is still too close to call. Otherwise, the maps look the same.

The popular vote prediction was for a 50-49 percent Obama win.  As of this morning, the vote is 50.3 - 48.1 percent, though those numbers will change slightly as late returns trickle in.

The Senate prediction was that three GOP pickups could cancel out three Democratic pickups. (I count Maine independent Angus King as a Democrat.) But if Democratic leads in North Dakota and Montana hold up, there will be only one Republican pickup (in Nebraska) for a surprising net loss of two for the GOP. 

The House prediction was for no net change in the 242-193 Republican majority.  Right now, the count is 233-191, with 11 races undecided.  Even if all 11 went Democratic, the Republicans would have a net loss of only nine.