Penn Wharton Budget Model:
- In Fiscal Year 2025, federal outlays totaled over $7 trillion across 52 general spending categories. Within each of these categories, we trace spending at the line item and subcategory level to assign a total of $4.4 trillion in spending across three age groups: retirees; working-age adults; children and young adults. We classify the remaining $2.6 trillion as “all ages” because they finance broad public goods.
- Retirees (ages 65 and older) receive $2.7 trillion, or 62 percent of the $4.4 trillion in age-assignable federal outlays, driven mainly by Social Security and Medicare.
- Working-age adults (ages 26–64) receive $1.2 trillion, or 28 percent of age-assignable outlays, spread across Medicaid, Social Security disability benefits, veterans benefits, and Marketplace subsidies.
- Children and young adults (under age 26) receive $449 billion, or 10 percent of age-assignable outlays, concentrated in Medicaid, SNAP, child nutrition, and education programs.
- The heavy expenditure share on retirees is consistent with a voting model from the field of political economy. The retiree share is predicted to increase even more with an aging population and fiscal strain.
