Population and Political Trends

Louis Jacobson at US News:

Put simply, most of the faster-growing states are red, and most of the slower-growing states are blue, according to the Census Bureau’s estimated state-by-state population changes between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023.

Of the 10 states that experienced the fastest percentage growth in population from 2022 to 2023, the top five voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020: South Carolina, Florida, Texas, Idaho and North Carolina. Two others in the top 10 did so as well: Tennessee and Utah.

If those population-growth patterns continue for the rest of the decade, it could seriously imperil the Democrats’ long-term chances of winning the White House. Each state gets one electoral vote for each congressional district, plus two for its Senate seats. So electoral votes are linked to population, but not on a one-to-one basis.

Several analyses, including one by New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice, have projected what the electoral vote map would look like if the population-growth patterns seen in 2022-23 continue uninterrupted until the next round of reapportionment, following the 2030 Census.

Undercount and Overcount

Many posts have discussed the census and population trends.

From the Census Bureau:

The U.S. Census Bureau today released the 2020 Census estimated undercount and overcount rates by state and the District of Columbia from the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES). Also released today are estimated coverage rates by census operation. This includes coverage rates by mode of self-response, and by respondent type in the Nonresponse Followup operation.

“The release of these PES estimates assists us in understanding how well we did this decade, state by state, in our efforts to count everyone living in the United States,” Census Bureau Director Robert L. Santos said. “Transparency is a critical aspect of scientific integrity. That is why we are releasing these results to the public. Our assessments – including the 2020 Census quality indicators, the PES, and the Demographic Analysis released earlier this year – offer valuable insights into the quality of the 2020 Census counts. Although none of the assessments alone can be considered definitive since no “true count” of the population exists, today’s PES results suggest that some states experienced undercounts or overcounts.”

The PES estimates show how well the 2020 Census counted everyone in the nation by creating an independent estimate of the number of people living in the United States on April 1, 2020 (excluding people in group quarters, such as nursing homes or college dorms, and people in Remote Alaska areas), surveying a sample of people in households in the United States and matching those responses to their records in the 2020 Census.

“Achieving an accurate count for all 50 states and DC is always a difficult endeavor, and these results suggest it was difficult again in 2020, particularly given the unprecedented challenges we faced,” Santos added. “It is important to remember that the quality of the 2020 Census total population count is robust and consistent with that of recent censuses. However, we know there is still more work to do in planning future censuses to ensure equitable coverage across the United States and we are working to overcome any and all obstacles to achieve that goal.”

This release includes:Undercount and overcount estimates for states, the District of Columbia (a state equivalent) and regions.
Components of coverage by state and the District of Columbia to estimate the proportions of census records that are correct, wrong, or we don’t have enough information to be sure one way or the other. They include correct enumerations, erroneous enumerations, whole-person imputations, and omissions.
National components of census coverage: Correct or erroneous enumerations and whole-person imputations by census operation and mode, including self-response by mode (internet, telephone, paper) and Nonresponse Followup by type of enumeration.

Key findings: 

• 37 states (or state equivalent) did not have estimated statistically significant undercounts or overcounts.
• 14 states (or state equivalent) are estimated to have had an undercount or overcount – a net coverage error statistically different from zero – meaning they were either undercounted or overcounted.Undercount: Arkansas (-5.04%), Florida (-3.48%), Illinois (-1.97%), Mississippi (-4.11%), Tennessee (-4.78%) and Texas (-1.92%).
• Overcount: Delaware (+5.45%), Hawaii (+6.79%), Massachusetts (+2.24%), Minnesota (+3.84%), New York (+3.44%), Ohio (+1.49%), Rhode Island (+5.05%) and Utah (+2.59%).

Visit the data visualization for a look at coverage for all states and the District of Columbia.

Baby Bust

 Morgan Winsor at ABC:

Birth and fertility rates in the United States dropped to record lows again last year, according to provisional data in a new report published Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The number of U.S. births in 2020 fell 4% from 2019, the lowest level since 1979. The figure is double the average annual rate of decline of 2% since 2014 and marks the sixth consecutive year that the number of births have dropped, according to the report.

Both the general and total fertility rates in 2020 also declined 4% from 2019, reaching record lows for the nation. Last year's total fertility rate "was again below replacement -- the level at which a given generation can exactly replace itself," meaning there are more people dying every day than are being born, the report said.

 Birth rates dropped for women in nearly all age groups and of every major race and ethnicity: 8% for Asian Americans, 6% for Native Americans and Alaska Natives, 4% for whites and Blacks, and 4% for Hispanics. General fertility rates fell 9% for Asian Americans, 7% for American Indians or Alaska Natives, 4% for Blacks, whites and Hispanics, and 3% for Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders, according to the report.

Lowest US Population Growth in a Century

William Frey at Brookings:

Figure 1 depicts annual U.S. population growth rates from 1900-01 to 2019-20. The most recent growth rate of 0.35% is the lowest of any single year since the beginning of the twentieth century, and likely for most of the nation’s history.

Over this period, the nation’s growth experienced ups and downs during wars, economic upheavals, and immigration waves. This includes a dip to below 0.5% during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and rises to almost 2% during the post-World War II “baby boom.” After sagging to annual levels closer to 1% during the 1970s and 1980s, there was uptick in the 1990s as a consequence of higher immigration.

Since 2000, national population growth started to dip again, especially after the Great Recession, and in recent years due to new immigration restrictions. Yet the 2019-to-2020 rate is well below most growth rates over the past 102 years, and less than half the level observed as recently as 2000 (see downloadable Table A).

Part of last year’s sharp decline can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought with it more deaths and further restrictions in immigration. Among states, 16 lost population in 2019-20 including California for the first time, and 34 showed lower growth or greater declines than in the previous year (downloadable Table B).