Total Recall

At NYT,  Soumya Karlamangla writes about Governor Gavin Newsom's victory in the CA recall.  She notes that GOP registration has plunged since Schwarzenegger's 2003 election.

Plus, over the past 18 years, party lines have hardened. In 2003, Democrats were more willing to criticize the governor from their party, while Schwarzenegger had cross-aisle appeal as a moderate Republican, and also a movie star.

“Arnold was to many Dems a perfectly acceptable alternative,” said Raphael Sonenshein, the executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles.

This year, however, Republicans failed to coalesce around a candidate who could appeal beyond the far right, as my colleague Jeremy W. Peters reports.

Kevin Faulconer, the centrist Republican candidate on the ballot, garnered little support throughout the campaign, though he resembles the kind of moderate Republicans who have succeeded here in the past.

Meanwhile, Larry Elder, a far right conservative radio host, quickly became the most popular candidate for recall supporters. But, as demonstrated by Tuesday’s results, Elder’s appeal with Republicans didn’t translate to Democrats, who overwhelmingly voted to keep Newsom in office.

There are no obvious answers as to what the future of the Republican Party will be in California. But Newsom is up for re-election in 2022, (yes, actually) so whatever tack the party chooses may become clear soon enough.

Recalls in 2012

Our chapter on elections discusses recalls.  In 2012, writes Joshua Spivak at The Week, 168 elected officials faced recall elections, apparently an all-time record.

\While Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's recall was by far the most prominent — it was only the third time a governor has ever faced a recall in U.S. history, and the first time one survived such a vote — there were plenty of other noteworthy attempts to bounce officials before their terms were up. The reasons for voter ire were quite varied, spanning the spectrum from taxes and government spending to gay rights to officials' malfeasance.  

Outside of Wisconsin, the most prominent set of recalls in the country were of three councilmen in Fullerton, Calif. They were removed from office after a homeless man was allegedly beaten to death by police. Fullerton offers a stark illustration of one of the major reasons why the recall has grown so popular. If it wasn't for technology to help spread the message and the outrage, the Fullerton councilmen could probably have weathered the storm. Instead, their opponents organized online, where they could easily share video of the alleged incident of police brutality. Politically, this was incredibly effective.

Recalls

Previous posts have discussed recall elections. CBS reports that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker beat back an effort to recall him from office, defeating challenger Tom Barrett (as he did in 2010). 

Walker is the first governor in U.S. history to survive a recall election. Gov. Gray Davis of California was recalled in 2003, and in 1921, North Dakota's Governor Lynn Frazier of was ousted due to a recall.

The heated recall race began amid the controversy created when Walker released a state budget proposal that included limiting the collective bargaining rights for public union workers. In response, large demonstrations protesting Walker's plan took place at the state capital building which eventually led to a recall effort. Voters who turned out for this election narrowly supported Walker's handling of the collective bargaining issue: 52 percent approved, and 47 percent disapproved.

Voters were similarly divided when asked about the state law that limited the collective bargaining rights of government workers: 52 percent approved, and 47 percent disapproved.

As expected, those voters who approved of Walker's policies voted overwhelmingly or the governor. Opponents of his policies backed Barrett, the Democrat.

Wisconsin voters were also split in their views of unions for government workers. According to exit polls, 51 percent said they viewed these unions favorably; slightly fewer - 45 percent - held unfavorable opinions.
...

Wisconsin voters had strong opinions on the merit of recall elections. Sixty percent told exit pollsters that recall elections are only appropriate when there has been official misconduct, and another 10 percent think such elections are never appropriate. Just 27 percent of Wisconsin voters supported holding recall elections for any reason.

Recalling Mayors

In our chapter on elections and campaigns, we discuss recall elections. On the local level, USA Today reports, such elections are becoming more common:

Buoyed by the viral power of the Internet and rising anti-government sentiment, disgruntled voters have set off a rash of recall drives against mayors in cities across the USA.

The urge to oust city leaders has intensified in the struggling economy as more mayors raise taxes and cut services to close budget shortfalls.

Fifty-seven mayors faced recall attempts last year, up from 23 in 2009, according to Ballotpedia, a non-profit that tracks recall elections. So far this year: 15. Almost all have failed.

Recalls are so frequent that the U.S. Conference of Mayors today launches a campaign warning mayors to brace for recalls. The effort includes a documentary-style film, Recall Fever: Stop the Madness. The film recounts recent recall efforts in Omaha; Miami; Akron, Ohio; and Chattanooga, Tenn.

"Any person who's coming in to serve needs to understand this is happening," says Tom Cochran, CEO and executive director of the non-partisan mayor's group. Cochran says that budgetary decisions made in this tough economic climate are likely to trigger more anger. "If they don't have a website, if they don't have a blogger," he says of mayors, "they better, by God, get one." ...

Voters generally like recalls, says Joshua Spivak, who writes a blog on recall elections and is a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College in New York City. "That's the whole point of democracy," he says. "Mayors have to accept that … that's part of the challenges of being a public elected official."

Most recalls fail, but last month, Miami-Dade County mayor Carlos Alvarez, who listed no party preference, was ousted by 88% of voters in a special election. Alvarez angered constituents when he gave pay increases to staffers and raised property taxes during a housing bust.

At the Recall Elections Blog, Spivak faults the Conference of Mayors effort:

Specifically, it notes that the recall has targeted local leaders “who have done nothing illegal” and that voters are “expressing their feelings -- often times in destructive ways.” This seems to be a fruitless attempt to shift the blame to the voters, and by stressing the illegality red herring, ignores the fact that recalls are (in most states and localities) inherently political devices. Most recalls are not based around illegal action, and a study of the history of the recall shows that it was not intended to flush out corruption. Voters are simply not going to like this line of attacks.

This is a shame, as the mayors should be calling attention to the cost of recalls. As I’ve mentioned before, arguing that a recall is expensive does not work that well as a campaign defense. However, it is pretty much the only time that the recall’s price tag comes up. The mayors are right to bring this issue to the fore now, and try to present a reasoned explanation for why voters should limit the recall in order to save money. But the Mayors have to walk a tightrope – which their initial press release did not do – and show that they are looking out for the voters best interest, and not seeking to protect themselves and limit options for deploying the recall.