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Friday, June 13, 2025

Views of the US

Richard Wike, Jacob Poushter, Laura Silver and Janell Fetterolf at Pew:

People across the 24 countries surveyed are divided in their ratings of the U.S. on a number of measures:
  • A median of 49% of adults have a favorable overall view of the U.S. An identical share have an unfavorable view.
  • People in eight countries tend to name the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power. In 12 nations, more consider China the top economy. In four, about equal shares name the U.S. and China.
  • A 50% median say democracy works well in the U.S., while 46% say it works poorly. And most agree there are strong partisan conflicts in the country.
In many – but not all – of the nations surveyed, views of the U.S. have become more negative since the last time we asked.




Thursday, June 12, 2025

DTLA, AI, and Disinformation


As demonstrations against Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids continue in Los Angeles, misleading videos, conspiracies and false claims have spread on social media.

Many of the posts recycle longstanding conspiracy theories, which have often been revived during past episodes of civil unrest. Some posts have made claims that wealthy individuals engineered or financed the protests, and they have racked up millions of views online.

Some posts exaggerate the unrest, using videos of past demonstrations to depict a city overwhelmed by violence. In fact, clashes since the current protests began Friday have remained largely confined to parts of Los Angeles County.
...
One widely shared video of vandalized police cars set ablaze, which was posted by far-right conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas on Sunday, was originally from news coverage of May 2020 protests in response to the death of George Floyd. 
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Amid the recycled imagery, authentic pictures of National Guard members sleeping on the floor of a federal building in Los Angeles this week were falsely described as old or unauthentic.

The images were initially published by the San Francisco Chronicle on Monday and republished by California Gov. Gavin Newsom on X, who said they served as proof that the deployment was poorly planned, and claimed the soldiers were "without fuel, food, water or a place to sleep."

Some social media users said the images were old and depicted soldiers at previous deployments. Grok, X's AI chatbot, determined the images were likely from Afghanistan in 2021.

However, the images are authentic. Using images published by the U.S. Northern Command and other videos posted to social media, CBS News independently confirmed the images were taken from the loading dock area of the Robert Young Federal Building.

Catherine Kim at Politico:
The latest rollout of accessible AI video generators presents unique challenges to the truth — and public perception of it — because videos are “more powerful as a medium in terms of convincing people of reality,” said Jamie Cohen, an assistant professor at CUNY Queens College who studies internet literacy.

“Pictures are easily manipulated,” he said. “That idea has been there. But when it comes to videos, we’ve just been trained as an individual society to believe videos. Up until recently, we haven’t really had the opportunity to assume videos could be faked at the scale that it’s being faked at this point.”

It’s not just the sheer amount of slop that is filling social media feeds that’s posing a problem. It’s the ability to visually manipulate scenes to fit the creator’s political agenda that is making it so much harder to decipher the truth during the L.A. protests. Consider these completely fake AI-generated videos posted over the past few days: one of a hypocritical protester who preaches peace and then throws a molotov cocktail. Or another of a man screaming “Viva Mexico,” but then cowering away from an officer who says he will take him to Mexico. These clips aren’t just delivering conservative talking points either: This one emanates from the left, featuring a young man delivering a heartfelt speech about standing with his community and fighting injustice.

Until recently, the concern with manipulated images has been related to their ability to misinform a crowd and sway public opinion. But a growing body of research proves that not much can change people’s minds — not even AI misinformation. What the technology can do, however, is reinforce preexisting beliefs, leaving people impervious to actual facts.

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

AI and News Sites

Many posts have dealt with media problems.

Isabella Simonetti and Katherine Blunt at WSJ:

The AI armageddon is here for online news publishers.

Chatbots are replacing Google searches, eliminating the need to click on blue links and tanking referrals to news sites. As a result, traffic that publishers relied on for years is plummeting.

Traffic from organic search to HuffPost’s desktop and mobile websites fell by just over half in the past three years, and by nearly that much at the Washington Post, according to digital market data firm Similarweb.

Business Insider cut about 21% of its staff last month, a move CEO Barbara Peng said was aimed at helping the publication “endure extreme traffic drops outside of our control.” Organic search traffic to its websites declined by 55% between April 2022 and April 2025, according to data from Similarweb.

At a companywide meeting earlier this year, Nicholas Thompson, chief executive of the Atlantic, said the publication should assume traffic from Google would drop toward zero and the company needed to evolve its business model.

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

The Guard

For the first time in sixty years, a president has activated the National Guard without a request from the state's governor -- in this case, over his vocal opposition.

Juliette Kayyem at The Atlantic:

Trump’s decision—to exercise his Title 10 authority to federalize the National Guard under his command—was not based on a careful assessment of the operational needs on the streets of Los Angeles. Even if the White House’s escalating rhetoric and threats of full military deployment were justified by circumstances that merited overruling a governor, the notion that the armed services will stop protests and quiet widespread outrage about Trump’s immigration-enforcement policies in California is naive and flawed. Implicated in Trump’s decision was a lot of prior controversy—immigration and deportation, ICE raids, tension between blue states and the White House, a personal beef with Newsom—but the president’s assertion that a troop presence is the answer to public unrest is particularly dubious. Historically, these deployments have proved of limited value even when the president and governor agree on goals. Sending in the military as a hostile force is a recipe for trouble.

...
Right now, the Pentagon appears not even to have arranged sleeping arrangements for its troops, let alone determined the rules of engagement on the streets; the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the deployment was so “wildly underprepared” that troops are sleeping in cramped quarters on the floor. At best, this deployment will be completely unnecessary. At worst, it will be deeply counterproductive. But Trump’s motive is transparent—and he will surely engineer an occasion to keep escalating his power plays, until they seem normal.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Waste, Fraud, Abuse

Many posts have discussed federal deficits and the federal debtAmericans vastly overestimate the amount of waste in the budget

Former DOGE employee Sahil Lavingia spoke to NPR:

I did not find the federal government to be rife with waste, fraud and abuse. I was expecting some more easy wins. I was hoping for opportunity to cut waste, fraud and abuse. And I do believe that there is a lot of waste. There's minimal amounts of fraud. And abuse, to me, feels relatively nonexistent. And the reason is — I think we have a bias as people coming from the tech industry where we worked at companies, you know, such as Google, Facebook, these companies that have plenty of money, are funded by investors and have lots of people kind of sitting around doing nothing.

The government has been under sort of a magnifying glass for decades. And so I think, generally, I personally was pretty surprised, actually, at how efficient the government was. This isn't to say that it can't be made more efficient — elimination of paper, elimination of faxing — but these aren't necessarily fraud, waste and abuse. These are just rooms to modernize and improve the U.S. federal government into the 21st century.


Sunday, June 8, 2025

Boots on LA Ground

For the first time in sixty years, a president has activated the National Guard without a request from the state's governor -- in this case, over his vocal opposition.
MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

THE ATTORNEY GENERAL

THE SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY

SUBJECT: Department of Defense Security for the Protection of Department of Homeland Security Functions

Numerous incidents of violence and disorder have recently occurred and threaten to continue in response to the enforcement of Federal law by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other United States Government personnel who are performing Federal functions and supporting the faithful execution of Federal immigration laws. In addition, violent protests threaten the security of and significant damage to Federal immigration detention facilities and other Federal property. To the extent that protests or acts of violence directly inhibit the execution of the laws, they constitute a form of rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States.

In light of these incidents and credible threats of continued violence, by the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, I hereby call into Federal service members and units of the National Guard under 10 U.S.C. 12406 to temporarily protect ICE and other United States Government personnel who are performing Federal functions, including the enforcement of Federal law, and to protect Federal property, at locations where protests against these functions are occurring or are likely to occur based on current threat assessments and planned operations. Further, I direct and delegate actions as necessary for the Secretary of Defense to coordinate with the Governors of the States and the National Guard Bureau in identifying and ordering into Federal service the appropriate members and units of the National Guard under this authority. The members and units of the National Guard called into Federal service shall be at least 2,000 National Guard personnel and the duration of duty shall be for 60 days or at the discretion of the Secretary of Defense. In addition, the Secretary of Defense may employ any other members of the regular Armed Forces as necessary to augment and support the protection of Federal functions and property in any number determined appropriate in his discretion.

To carry out this mission, the deployed military personnel may perform those military protective activities that the Secretary of Defense determines are reasonably necessary to ensure the protection and safety of Federal personnel and property The Secretary of Defense shall consult with the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security prior to withdrawing any personnel from any location to which they are sent. The Secretaries of Defense and Homeland Security may delegate to subordinate officials of their respective Departments any of the authorities conferred upon them by this memorandum.

DONALD J. TRUMP

10 U.S. Code § 12406 - National Guard in Federal service: call

Whenever—

(1)the United States, or any of the Commonwealths or possessions, is invaded or is in danger of invasion by a foreign nation;

(2)there is a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States; or

(3)the President is unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States;

the President may call into Federal service members and units of the National Guard of any State in such numbers as he considers necessary to repel the invasion, suppress the rebellion, or execute those laws. Orders for these purposes shall be issued through the governors of the States or, in the case of the District of Columbia, through the commanding general of the National Guard of the District of Columbia.

(Added Pub. L. 103–337, div. A, title XVI, § 1662(f)(1), Oct. 5, 1994, 108 Stat. 2994; amended Pub. L. 109–163, div. A, title X, § 1057(a)(5), Jan. 6, 2006, 119 Stat. 3440.)


Saturday, June 7, 2025

Military Stats

Many posts have discussed the US military.

Jenn Hatfield at Pew:

As of the end of March, the U.S. military had 1.32 million active-duty members, according to DMDC figures. This is an increase of 1.5% over the year prior, when there were about 1.30 million. (Active-duty military are those who work for the military full time. They do not include personnel in the Reserve or National Guard.)

Nearly 450,000 active-duty military members serve in the Army, the most of any military branch. The Navy has the second-largest number of active-duty members (about 334,000), followed by the Air Force and Marine Corps. The Coast Guard and Space Force are much smaller, with fewer than 50,000 active-duty members each.

All branches of the military have gained active-duty members in the past year. The Navy has gained the most in overall numbers (about 7,300). The Space Force and the Coast Guard have grown the most in percentage terms (6.1% and 3.4%, respectively).

Active-duty military members are assigned to work in every state and internationally, according to DMDC data. A large majority (86%) are stationed domestically, while 14% are stationed internationally.

The number of active-duty military working in each state varies greatly, based partly on the locations of military bases. California has the most active-duty military, with about 157,500. Virginia and Texas also have more than 100,000.

Six states have fewer than 1,000 active-duty military, and Vermont has the fewest of all with 128.

Some branches of the military have an especially large footprint in certain states:Texas has about 65,400 active-duty Army members, about 16,000 more than any other state. There are five Army bases there, the second-most of any state after Virginia.

Virginia (73,500) and California (72,500) have by far the most active-duty Navy members. No other state has even half that many, even though states like Florida, Maryland and Washington have roughly similar numbers of naval bases.

Colorado has about 4,300 active-duty Space Force members, nearly three times more than any other state. Three of the nation’s six Space Force bases are in Colorado

.