Immigrants, the Budget, and Social Security

Many posts have discussed immigration.

  David J. Bier, Michael Howard, and Julián Salazar at Cato:

This paper updates a model of these effects first developed by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) to shed light on how immigrants, both legal and illegal, and their children affect government budgets. This analysis is the first to estimate the cumulative fiscal effect of immigrants on federal, state, and local budgets over 30 years.

The government first began gathering detailed information on benefits use by citizenship status in 1994. \

• The data show:For each year from 1994 to 2023, the US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government.
• Over that period, immigrants created a cumulative fiscal surplus of $14.5 trillion in real 2024 US dollars, including $3.9 trillion in savings on interest on the debt.
• Without immigrants, US government public debt at all levels would be at least 205 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—nearly twice its 2023 level.

These results, which do not account for any of immigration’s indirect, tax-revenue-boosting effects on economic growth, represent the lower bound of the positive fiscal effects. Even by this conservative analysis, immigrants may have already prevented a fiscal crisis.

....

 Immigrants cost less as retirees: First, the savings on old-age benefits are not because immigrants are significantly less likely to retire. Instead, it is because they are far less likely to receive a government pension, since they were less likely to have government jobs and thus less likely to receive expensive government pensions. The main reason, though, is that they were simply barred from applying for Social Security and Medicare because they either arrived too late in life to earn the necessary qualifying work history, or they are here illegally or in a temporary status and ineligible for that reason.

A 2024 ITEP report by  Carl Davis, Marco Guzman, Emma Sifre:

• Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022. Most of that amount, $59.4 billion, was paid to the federal government while the remaining $37.3 billion was paid to state and local governments.
• Undocumented immigrants paid federal, state, and local taxes of $8,889 per person in 2022. In other words, for every 1 million undocumented immigrants who reside in the country, public services receive $8.9 billion in additional tax revenue.
• More than a third of the tax dollars paid by undocumented immigrants go toward payroll taxes dedicated to funding programs that these workers are barred from accessing. Undocumented immigrants paid $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes, $6.4 billion in Medicare taxes, and $1.8 billion in unemployment insurance taxes in 2022.

George W. on George W.

Many posts have discussed the presidency.

President George W. Bush at In Pursuit:

Few qualities have inspired me more than Washington’s humility. I have studied the corrupting nature of power, and how retaining power for power’s sake has infected politics for generations. Our first president could have remained all-powerful, but twice he chose not to. In so doing, he set a standard for all presidents to live up to. His life, with all its flaws and achievements, should be studied by all who aspire to leadership. George Washington’s humility in giving up power willingly remains among the most consequential decisions and important examples in American politics.

After leading the United States to victory over Great Britain in the Revolutionary War, George Washington was at the height of his power. Some suggested that he should become king. Instead, General Washington resigned his military commission in 1783. When King George III of Great Britain learned of his vanquisher’s intentions, he reportedly said, “If He did, He will be the greatest man in the world.” What Washington did on that cold December afternoon in Annapolis shaped the foundation and future of American democracy. And he was just getting started.

Universal Nation

Many posts have discussed immigration.

James Pethokoukis at AEI:

Abroad, the American way of life had become, in his phrase, “the pervasive, persuasive, universal model” worldwide, encompassing consumer capitalism, popular entertainment, and democratic institutions. (“Isn’t that what the number one nation is supposed to be about?,” he asked in his 1991 book, The First Universal Nation.) Unlike Rome or Britain, the United States didn’t rule by conquest. It persuaded, absorbed, and broadcast. (And this was before the internet.)

Three decades on, Wattenberg’s framework seems as valid as ever, even if public confidence in it has weakened.

Start with the 2026 Winter Olympics. Of roughly 230 athletes on Team USA, according to The Seattle Times, seven are foreign-born and another 31 are the children of immigrants. Just one story: Top men’s figure skater Ilia Malinin—the American-born son of two former Olympic figure skaters who competed for Uzbekistan. A George Mason University student, he helped push Team USA to gold in the Olympic team event over the weekend. But the medal count here is secondary. On a global stage designed to celebrate peaceful national competition, the US presents itself as a country whose identity is beneficially additive. A success sequence worth celebrating and not screwing up: Global talent enters American institutions and then successfully represents the country back to the world.

Then consider the Super Bowl halftime show headlined by rapper Bad Bunny. The most American of spectacles briefly became a Spanish-language celebration of Puerto Rican identity. Talk about a cultural flex. I doubt many other countries’ signature sporting event would hand its stage to a performer singing anything other than that country’s primary language. What audiences here and globally saw was a country roomy and confident enough to absorb and amplify an identity rather than suppress it. The NFL certainly sees Wattenberg’s universal nation as an asset to its global ambitions.

America today is unsure of itself in ways it likely wasn’t 30 years ago when it became the planet’s only superpower. And our journey toward universality is hardly a walk in the park. It never has been. (Wattenberg: “We are becoming a universal nation at home; we come from everywhere. We are a ‘wondrous race,’ although, Lord knows, it’s not always easy, and we self-inflict more than a few wounds. Still, as demonstrated, it’s worked, and it’s working.”)

Free Speech and Retired Military Members

At Davos a few weeks ago, Trump said: Usually they say, 'He's a horrible dictator-type person,' I'm a dictator. But sometimes you need a dictator

Previous posts have discussed authoritarian moves by the executive branch.

Judge Richard J. Leon of the District Court for the District of Columbia:

United States Senator Mark Kelly, a retired naval officer, has been censured by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth for voicing certain opinions on military actions and policy. In addition, he has been subjected to proceedings to possibly reduce his retirement rank and pay and threatened with criminal prosecution if he continues to speak out on these issues. Secretary Hegseth relies on the well-established doctrine that military servicemembers enjoy less vigorous First Amendment protections given the fundamental obligation for obedience and discipline in the armed forces. Unfortunately for Secretary Hegseth, no court has ever extended those principles to retired servicemembers, much less a retired servicemember serving in Congress and exercising oversight responsibility over the military. This Court will not be the first to do so!

 Worse still, Secretary Hegseth contends that this Court is not yet competent to decide the issues in this case. He and his fellow Defendants argue that military personnel decisions are exempt from judicial review and, in any event, that Senator Kelly should first be required to go through the military appeals process so the military can have the first crack at adjudicating his First Amendment rights. I disagree. This Court has all it needs to conclude that Defendants have trampled on Senator Kelly's First Amendment freedoms and threatened the constitutional liberties of millions of military retirees. After all, as Bob Constitution demands they receive it! I. Dylan famously said, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."1 To say the least, our retired veterans deserve more respect from their Government, and our Constitution demands they receive it! 

Senator Kelly's First Amendment claim is not only justiciable; he is likely to succeed on the merits. He has also shown irreparable harm, and the balance of the equities fall decidedly in his favor. As such, his motion for a preliminary injunction on his First Amendment claim is hereby GRANTED.

Deficit and Debt 2026

Many posts have discussed federal deficits and the federal debt. Like previous efforts to reduce the deficit by cutting "waste, fraud, and abuse," DOGE was a failure.

CBO:

In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion and grows to $3.1 trillion by 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and grows to 6.7 percent in 2036, which is greater than the 3.8 percent deficits averaged over the past 50 years. Rising net interest costs drive much of that increase. The primary deficit, which excludes those net interest costs, totals 2.6 percent of GDP this year and stays below that level through 2036, when it totals 2.1 percent.

...

 From 2026 to 2036, large and growing deficits cause debt to increase. Federal debt held by the public rises from 101 percent of GDP this year to 120 percent in 2036, surpassing its previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946.

 

AOH v. Trump's Racist Post

Many posts have discussed bigotry.

The  Ancient Order of Hibernians condemned the racist depiction of President Barack Obama and Mrs. Michelle Obama inTrump’s social media account.

“The Ancient Order of Hibernians condemns in the strongest possible terms the racist depiction of President Barack Obama and Mrs. Michelle Obama as apes that was shared from President Trump’s social media account. This is not a political statement, but a moral one founded in our Irish history and Catholic faith.

We recognize this tactic because it was used against us as Irish Americans.

As an organization founded to combat attacks against Irish immigrants, we know intimately the weaponization of simian imagery. For generations, our ancestors were caricatured as apes in newspapers, political cartoons, and popular culture; portrayed as violent, primitive, and less than human. The influential cartoonist Thomas Nast, whose work appeared in Harper’s Weekly throughout the latter half of the 19th century, repeatedly drew Irish immigrants with pronounced simian features equating them with violent primates. These depictions were used to justify discrimination, exclusion, and violence. They stripped our people of dignity and humanity.

The claim that this video was merely an “internet meme” or that critics were engaging in “fake outrage” is both morally bankrupt and historically ignorant. There is nothing lighthearted about reducing any people to apes. This imagery has been used for centuries as a tool of oppression, designed to dehumanize and justify subjugation. It is not humor; it is bigotry.

The subsequent walk-back, blaming an unnamed staffer and claiming the president was unaware, rings hollow. Leadership means accountability. As a leader, the President should be well aware that the captain of a ship is responsible for all who serve under him. When this content appeared on the president’s account, the president bears responsibility, regardless of whom he empowered to press the button. The initial defense of this post by staffers as harmless reveals either a shocking ignorance of history or a willful disregard for human dignity.

The Ancient Order of Hibernians is a nonpartisan organization. We do not endorse political parties or candidates. But we cannot—and will not—remain silent when any human being is dehumanized through the racist imagery that once targeted our own community.

An apology is owed. Not for political expediency, but because it is right. The dehumanizing of people as apes was wrong in the 19th century, it certainly as no place in the 21st.

 

Americans and the News

Many posts have dealt with the news media 

Kirsten Eddy el al. at Pew:

Americans today describe a complicated relationship with the news. Most say being informed is essential for civic life – especially voting – yet many feel overwhelmed, skeptical and selective about how they engage with information, according to a new Pew Research Center study from the Pew-Knight Initiative.

A central tension shapes today’s news landscape. Most people believe Americans have a civic responsibility to be informed when they vote. But far fewer say regularly following news is extremely or very important in general, and roughly half say they can stay informed even if they don’t actively follow it.

The reality of how people get news nowadays plays into this tension. Americans are evenly split between those who mostly get news because they are seeking it out and those who mostly let news find them. But either way, the high volume of information reaching people from a wide variety of sources brings with it several challenges.

For one, people feel the onus is on news consumers to check whether the news they get is accurate. Americans have far more confidence in their own ability to do this than in other people’s ability.

News fatigue is also widespread – and shaping Americans’ news choices. About half of U.S. adults say they are worn out by the amount of news these days, and people are more likely to say most of the news they come across is not relevant to their lives than to say it is relevant. Following the news often feels like an obligation, and only about one-in-ten Americans say they follow it solely because they enjoy it.

Many have adjusted their news habits: Two-thirds say they have stopped getting news from a specific source, and six-in-ten say they have reduced their overall news intake.

These are some of the key findings of a survey of more than 3,500 U.S. adults that Pew Research Center conducted in December 2025 and nine focus groups held in June 2025. To learn more about this study, read “About this research.”