Many posts have discussed the problems of surveying public opinion in the 21st century.
Natalie Jackson at National Journal explains why Gallup has stopped polling presidential approval after decades of doing so. She writes that Gallup was still conducting such polls by telephone, including cellphones -- an expensive practice.
Unlike many public pollsters who use expensive, high-quality methodologies, Gallup is a for-profit company. This is not your grandparents’ Gallup—it has evolved into a global research consultancy. Its website advertises services for clients with nary a mention of U.S. politics.
It’s worth mentioning Gallup has a lot of federal contracts, which could factor into a business decision about presidential approval with a president who likes to sue pollsters. The benefits of publishing presidential approval numbers might still outweigh the risks if there were money to be made from doing it. Yet that isn’t the case in today’s political polling environment. From a business perspective, it is an expensive money drain.
Other pollsters using expensive methodologies—mostly colleges and universities, media, or nonprofits—are not dependent on turning a profit directly from their polling. They are trying to generate attention, clicks, ratings, or reputational perks, or simply provide a public service. Some private pollsters release data publicly so that they will be listed in aggregates to bolster their name recognition. Gallup doesn’t need to do that.
Presidential approval numbers, in particular, are worth less than they used to be. Every poll gets put into aggregates with dozens of other surveys and is forgotten about within a few hours. Every now and then, Gallup’s numbers get widespread attention as a new high or low, but we are decades past the time when the company was offering something in its approval ratings that couldn’t be found elsewhere—except for the decades’ worth of comparative data going back to the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration.
Gallup’s decision isn’t out of nowhere. The company has pulled back from public political polling over the last decade or so, including its decision in 2015 to no longer survey on the presidential election horse race after underestimating the strength of President Obama’s 2012 reelection win. Pew Research also discontinued releasing horse-race questions for the 2016 race, explicitly saying, “Putting resources toward an already saturated market doesn’t make much sense for us.”
Essentially, both Gallup and Pew made a calculation: Why take on the reputational risk of a miss when so many other polls are out there? By 2015, the prevailing logic had become to ignore individual polls and look at aggregates and forecasts anyway.
