USA Grows, California and Illinois Shrink

From the Census Bureau:

After a historically low rate of change between 2020 and 2021, the U.S. resident population increased by 0.4%, or 1,256,003, to 333,287,557 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates and components of change released today.

Net international migration — the number of people moving in and out of the country — added 1,010,923 people between 2021 and 2022 and was the primary driver of growth. This represents 168.8% growth over 2021 totals of 376,029 – an indication that migration patterns are returning to pre-pandemic levels. Positive natural change (births minus deaths) increased the population by 245,080.

“There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. “A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the largest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase.”
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Increasing by 470,708 people since July 2021, Texas was the largest-gaining state in the nation, reaching a total population of 30,029,572. By crossing the 30-million-population threshold this past year, Texas joins California as the only states with a resident population above 30 million. Growth in Texas last year was fueled by gains from all three components: net domestic migration (230,961), net international migration (118,614), and natural increase (118,159).

Florida was the fastest-growing state in 2022, with an annual population increase of 1.9%, resulting in a total resident population of 22,244,823.

“While Florida has often been among the largest-gaining states,” Wilder noted, “this was the first time since 1957 that Florida has been the state with the largest percent increase in population.”

It was also the second largest-gaining state behind Texas, with an increase of 416,754 residents. Net migration was the largest contributing component of change to Florida’s growth, adding 444,484 residents. New York had the largest annual numeric and percent population decline, decreasing by 180,341 (-0.9%). Net domestic migration (-299,557) was the largest contributing component to the state’s population decline.

Eighteen states experienced a population decline in 2022, compared to 15 and DC the prior year. California, with a population of 39,029,342, and Illinois, with a population of 12,582,032, also had six-figure decreases in resident population. Both states’ declining populations were largely due to net domestic outmigration, totaling 343,230 and 141,656, respectively.

Annexation and the Census

At NYT, Mitch Smith reports that Decatur, Illinois, and other cities are trying to give themselves a pre-census population boost by annexing surrounding areas.

Over the last year, the City Council pushed Decatur’s boundaries outward, annexing hundreds of properties despite vehement objections from new residents whose spacious houses and half-acre lots contrast sharply with the smaller, aging homes in neighborhoods closer to downtown.

The annexation drive in Decatur, where the population in the latest federal estimate was just over 71,000, down from 94,000 in 1980, is part of a once-a-decade land rush across the country. Ahead of a 2020 census that will shape government budgets for the next 10 years, officials in cities in Wyoming, Arizona, Alabama and elsewhere pitched plans to broaden their borders.

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Anytime a city annexes land, it carries the fiscal promise of increasing the local tax base, along with the duty to provide services like street repairs and policing to a wider area. But annexation before the once-a-decade census offers an added prize: higher numbers for a count that is used to seal some state and federal funding for the decade ahead.

Population Gainers and Losers

From the Census:

The U.S. population grew by 0.6 percent and Nevada and Idaho were the nation’s fastest-growing states between July 1, 2017, and July 1, 2018. Both states’ populations increased by about 2.1 percent in the last year alone. Following Nevada and Idaho for the largest percentage increases in population were Utah (1.9 percent), Arizona (1.7 percent), and Florida and Washington (1.5 percent each).

Washington, D.C., reached a population of 702,455 in July 2018, surpassing 700,000 for the first time since 1975, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s national and state population estimates released today. The change is due primarily to an influx of people from other parts of the country that began early in the decade. While the increase has begun to slow, the District of Columbia still grew by almost 1 percent last year.

Population declines were also common, with losses occurring in nine states and Puerto Rico. The nine states that lost population last year were New York (down 48,510), Illinois (45,116), West Virginia (11,216), Louisiana (10,840), Hawaii (3,712), Mississippi (3,133), Alaska (2,348), Connecticut (1,215) and Wyoming (1,197).

From Election Data Services:

New Census Bureau population estimates for 2018 released today shows a change of one more seat between two states from last year’s study generated by Election Data Services, Inc. on which states would gain or lose congressional seats if the current numbers were used for apportionment in 2018. But projecting these numbers to 2020, using several different methods, leads to more states being impacted by the decennial census scheduled to take place in just two years. These numbers will also be impacted by financial considerations being debated in the states, as well as in Congress as Commerce Department and Census Bureau appropriations hang in the balance of the government “shut-down” debate this week.

The Bureau’s 2018 total population estimates shows that now 13 states will be impacted by changes in their congressional delegation if these new numbers were used for apportionment today. The state of Arizona joins the previously indicated states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Oregon to each gain a single seat while the state of Texas is now shown to gain a second seat with the new data. The states of Rhode Island join the states of Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to lose a seat in Congress using the new data.

1988

Lloyd Green at The Guardian:

Looking back, 1988 was a turning point. It would be the last time any presidential candidate broke 400 votes in the electoral college, the last time California, New Jersey and Illinois went red. What was up until then viewed as the Republican lock would give way in four short years.

After that night, no non-incumbent Republican would again lead the popular vote. The Democratic party would capture a plurality in six of the next seven presidential elections. Flyover country would emerge as a contiguous Republican bastion, Democrats relegated mostly to the coasts. Another realignment was under way.

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 Back in the day, the president’s father was a senator from Connecticut and a golf partner to President Eisenhower. Now, the Nutmeg state’s entire congressional delegation is Democratic. Ned Lamont, governor-elect, played golf at the country club where George met Barbara Bush.

No Republican has carried these states since Bush in 1988:

• California
• Connecticut
• Delaware
• Illinois
• Maine
• Maryland
• New Jersey
• Vermont

Local Government and Rural Poverty

Selena Zito reports at The Washington Examiner about Ford Heights, Illinois, a poor African American community:

Being poor in a large or mid-size city is different than being poor in a rural area, if a poor rural town has no tax base, then social services start to erode, things like libraries and water service become at-risk. 

Yes, something as fundamental as water can be denied if your town does not pay its bills — which is exactly what happened here last fall, when the town fell behind in its payments to Chicago Heights, the source of its municipal water supply 

When the Chicago Heights mayor announced that his city would stop providing water to Ford Heights, it caused an understandable panic among residents. When a deal was struck between the two cities, a second blow was dealt to Ford Heights residents: Their water bills doubled. 

And the library? Not only does the town no longer have one (it closed decades ago, then was torn down), but its residents have been denied library cards at the neighboring town of Glenwood-Lynwood's library because Ford Heights has — you guessed it — become delinquent in its payments.

Attitudes Toward States and State Governments

Gallup reports:

When asked to rate their state as a place to live, three in four Montanans (77%) and Alaskans (77%) say their state is the best or one of the best places to live. Residents of Rhode Island (18%) and Illinois (19%) are the least likely to praise their states.
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The results are based on a special 50-state Gallup poll conducted June-December 2013, including interviews with at least 600 residents in every state. For the first time, Gallup measured whether residents view their states as "the best possible state to live in," "one of the best possible states to live in," "as good a state as any to live in," or "the worst possible state to live in."

A few weeks ago, Gallup reported:

Illinois residents trust their state government to handle their state's problems far less than residents in any other state. Twenty-eight percent of Illinois residents trust their state government "a great deal" or "a fair amount." In contrast, at least 75% of North Dakota, Wyoming, and Utah residents trust their state governments.

The results are based on a special 50-state Gallup poll conducted June-December 2013, including interviews with at least 600 residents in every state. This poll allows Gallup for the first time to report trust in state government at the state level. Gallup has previously measured Americans' trust in their state governments on anational basis. The most recent national estimate, from September 2013, finds 62% of all Americans having a great deal or fair amount of trust in their state government.

Chris Cillizza writes at The Washington Post:

The overlap is uncanny. In virtually every state where people said they had above average trust in their state government, they also said that their state was the best or one of the best. And the reverse was also true; if you don't like your state government, the chances of you saying your state is one of the best or the best are tiny. Illinois ranks number one in the least trusted state government and second in worst place to live. Rhode Island is rated as the worst state to live in by its residents and places second in least trust in its state government.

Hispanic State Population

In its new statistical portrait of the Hispanic population, Pew provides detail on geographic distribution:

Clergy and a Chicago Race

Previous posts have discussed the role of clergy in American politics.  Though houses of worship cannot keep their tax exemption if they endorse candidates, clergy may do so on a "personal" basis.  (In practice, the distinction is hazy.)  Candidates and officials also speak in houses of worship.  The New York Times reports on the race to succeed Jesse Jackson, Jr.:

Facing a primary election last year, Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. was taking no chances. He gathered dozens of local pastors for a news conference here, where they prayed against “political demonic forces” and fiercely endorsed the 17-year congressman for another term.

“They’ve known my highest moments, and they’ve known my lowest moments,” Mr. Jackson said of the mostly African-American ministers who surrounded him. “And on some Saturdays and on every Sunday each one of these pastors prays for somebody just like me.”

It is not surprising that a crowded field of candidates is courting the same kind of clergy support in a Feb. 26 special primary election to replace Mr. Jackson, who resigned his Second Congressional District seat 15 days after winning re-election in November. Now facing a short campaign sprint, those candidates say the backing of ministers and invitations to stump at multiple church services each weekend remain the sacraments of any good election ground game in the district, which includes parts of Chicago’s South Side and southern suburbs.

Like in many districts across the country where African-Americans are the majority, the Second District has counted black ministers among the most influential voices for decades. Their endorsements, trusted by many churchgoers, are traditionally seen as an indication of how those congregants may vote on Election Day.
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“We want it to stay an African-American seat,” said Carl L. White Jr., the pastor of Victory Christian Assembly in Markham, Ill., and the president of the Southland Ministerial Health Network. “We want a voice for us in this area. There’s access that comes with culture."

89,004 Local Governments

Our chapter on federalism notes the large number of governments in the United States. The Census Bureau reports:

The U.S. Census Bureau today released preliminary counts of local governments as the first component of the 2012 Census of Governments.

In 2012, 89,004 local governments existed in the United States, down from 89,476 in the last census of governments conducted in 2007. Local governments included 3,031 counties (down from 3,033 in 2007), 19,522 municipalities (up from 19,492 in 2007), 16,364 townships (down from 16,519 in 2007), 37,203 special districts (down from 37,381 in 2007) and 12,884 independent school districts (down from 13,051 in 2007).

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Among the key findings in the 2012 Census of Governments preliminary counts:

• Illinois leads the nation with 6,968 local governments -- approximately 2,000 more
• Hawaii has 21 local governments, the fewest of any state.
• Texas remains first in the nation with the most independent school districts at 1,079. Closely behind is California, with 1,025 independent school districts.
• Seventeen states had more special districts compared with 2007, and 29 had fewer. Five states (including the District of Columbia) had no change.
• Ten states had fewer townships because of mergers and consolidations. Kansas decreased the most, moving from 1,353 in 2007 to 1,268 in 2012, a decrease of 85.

The Fiscal Crisis of the States

In June 2011 former New York Lieutenant Governor Richard Ravitch and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul A. Volcker assembled a State Budget Crisis Task Force to examine fiscal threats to California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Texas, and Virginia. Among the findings:

Certain large expenditures are growing at rates that exceed reasonable expectations for revenues:

• Medicaid programs are growing rapidly because of increasing enrollments, escalating health care costs and difficulty in implementing cost reduction proposals. At recent rates of growth, state Medicaid costs will outstrip revenue growth by a wide margin, and the gap will continue to expand.• Pension funds for state and local government workers are underfunded by approximately a trillion dollars according to their actuaries and by as much as $3 trillion or more if more conservative investment assumptions are used.• Unfunded liabilities for health care benefits for state and local government retirees amount to more than $1 trillion.

The capacity to raise revenues is increasingly impaired:

• Untaxed transactions are eroding the sales tax base. Gasoline taxes are eroding as well, making it more difficult for states to finance roads, highways, and bridges.
• Income taxes have become increasingly volatile, particularly during and after the recent economic crisis.

The federal budget crisis will have serious spillover effects on state and local governments, and state actions will have spillover effects on local governments: 

• Cuts in federal grant dollars, lower spending on federal installations, procurement, and infrastructure, and potential changes to the federal tax code all threaten states’ fiscal stability.
• Pressures on local governments, caused by the weak economy and cuts in state aid, are constraining education spending, law enforcement, aid to the needy, and the institutions that make up the culture of our cities. Local government cuts pose a significant risk to the overall economic and social fabric of states.