Deaths of Despair, Latest Data

From the Trust for America's Health:

More than 150,000 Americans died from alcohol- and drug-induced causes and suicide in 2017 — more than twice as many as in 1999 — according to a new analysis by Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) and Well Being Trust (WBT) of mortality data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

From 2016 to 2017, the combined death rate for alcohol, drug, and suicide increased
6 percent, from 43.9 to 46.6 deaths per 100,000 people.

While at historically high levels, the increase is lower than the prior two years, when there were 11 percent and 7 percent rises for 2015 to 2016 and 2014 to 2015, respectively.

 The trends are worse for certain groups of Americans and in certain areas:

• Among those age 35-54, the rate ofdeath by alcohol, drug, and suicide was 72.4 per 100,000.
• For all males, the rate was 68.2 deaths per 100,000.
• Regionally, 91 West Virginia residents and 77 New Mexico residents per 100,000 died from alcohol, drugs, and suicide. On the low end, 31.5 Texas residents and 34.1 Mississippi residents per 100,000 died from alcohol, drugs, and suicide. 

(full report here)

Data on Educational Attainment

Scott Jaschik at Inside Higher Ed:

New data from the Lumina Foundation show that in 2016, 46.9 percent of Americans aged 25 to 64 had a postsecondary degree or certificate. That is a 1.1 percentage point increase in a year and a 9 percentage point increase since 2008, but Lumina's report says that the rate of increase isn't large enough to meet a goal of 60 percent by 2025. Further, the Lumina data show significant gaps by race and ethnicity. The 2016 figures by race/ethnicity (for degrees only, excluding certificates) are:

• Asian American: 61.7 percent
• White: 46.4 percent
• Black: 30 percent
• Native American: 24 percent
• Latino: 21.9 percent

State data show that Massachusetts ranks at the top (56.2%) and West Virginia at the bottom (34.7%)

Overdoses and Life Expectancy

The Centers for Disase Control reports that life expectancy dipped slightly in 2016

• Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2016 was 78.6 years, a decrease of 0.1 year from 2015.
• The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 0.6% from 733.1 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2015 to 728.8 in 2016. Age-specific death rates between 2015 and 2016 increased for younger age groups and decreased for older age groups.
• The 10 leading causes of death in 2016 remained the same as in 2015, although unintentional injuries became the third leading cause, while chronic lower respiratory diseases became the fourth.

Another CDC report suggests that drug overdoses were the cause. 

• In 2016, there were more than 63,600 drug overdose deaths in the United States.
  The age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths in 2016 (19.8 per 100,000) was 21% higher than the rate in 2015 (16.3).
• Among persons aged 15 and over, adults aged 25–34, 35–44, and 45–54 had the highest rates of drug overdose deaths in 2016 at around 35 per 100,000.
• West Virginia (52.0 per 100,000), Ohio (39.1), New Hampshire (39.0), the District of Columbia (38.8), and Pennsylvania (37.9) had the highest observed age-adjusted drug overdose death rates in 2016.
• The age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids other than methadone (drugs such as fentanyl, fentanyl analogs, and tramadol) doubled between 2015 and 2016, from 3.1 to 6.2 per 100,000.

Another Misspelling

The White House spelled West Virginia wrong on President Trump's schedule. pic.twitter.com/5m6rgafuCE

— Brad Ripka (@bradripka) July 24, 2017

New Turnout Numbers

Our chapter on political participation discusses voter turnout. There are now new data on the subject, according to a release from the Census Bureau:

Hispanics made up 7 percent of voters in the 2010 congressional election, the highest percentage for a nonpresidential election since the U.S. Census Bureau began collecting this information in 1974. Hispanics comprised 6 percent of voters in 2006.

Blacks also increased their share of the electorate, going from 11 percent in 2006 to 12 percent in 2010 (a figure not statistically different from the record high in 1998).

These numbers come from Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2010, a set of tables that compares voting and registration patterns by demographic, social and geographic characteristics. They also include state figures on voting and registration.

“These statistics show that the nation's electorate is becoming increasingly diverse,” said Tiffany Julian, of the Census Bureau's Education and Social Stratification Branch. “The electorate looks much different than when we first started collecting these data 37 years ago.”

The Asian share of the electorate in 2010 was not statistically different than the share in 2006 (2.5 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively). Non-Hispanic white voters decreased from 80.4 percent of the electorate in 2006 to 77.5 percent in 2010, a decline of 2.9 percentage points.

Other highlights from the tables:

• Maine and Washington experienced voter turnout greater than 55 percent. Fewer than 40 percent of citizens in Texas reported voting.
• The most common reason people did not vote was they were too busy (27 percent). Another 16 percent felt that their vote would not make a difference.
• Homeowners were more likely to register and vote than renters; 74 percent of homeowners were registered to vote and 68 percent actually voted; 61 percent of renters were registered and 52 percent voted.
• People with at least some college education made up 68 percent of voters. Individuals without a high school diploma comprised 6 percent of voters.
• Veterans were more likely to vote (57 percent) than nonveterans (44 percent).
• People living in families who earned $100,000 or more were more than twice as likely to vote as those who lived with families earning less than $20,000 (61 percent and 30 percent, respectively).

Two states with lower turnout are Tennessee and West Virginia.

Gannett reports:

Census bureau surveys dating back to 1990 show Tennessee has consistently ranked lower than most states in congressional election turnout. It has numbered among the bottom 15 in all but the 2002 election.

"Historically the southern states have had a lower turnout," said Mark Byrnes, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University. "Part of it's tied to education. We know that education is correlated to the likelihood to vote, and we have a low percentage of college-educated people."

Nationally, college-educated people made up 68 percent of voters in 2010, according to census figures. People without a high-school diploma accounted for 6 percent of voters.

Nationwide and in Tennessee, turnout was higher among older Americans than among young people.

About 16 percent of citizens between 18 and 24 voted in Tennessee, compared to 21 percent nationwide. Sixty-three percent of Tennesseans between 65 and 74 showed up at the polls -- consistent with national data.

Byrnes said high turnout among older voters isn't surprising.

"Those are by and large retired people who have a great interest in making sure that the government programs that serve them stay healthy," he said. "They have plenty of time to vote and to keep up with the issues, and if you add time to interest, you're likely to get voting."

WVNS-TV reports:

Marybeth Beller, associated professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at Marshall University, said the low turnout rates for young people are not surprising.

“Since we passed the amendment to the Constitution lowering the voting age to 18, we’ve seen a drop off in that cohort,” Beller said.

“Unless we have campaign issues that connect to people in that age group, they don’t tune in.”

In the past couple of years, much of the political debate nationwide has been on health care and health insurance, but that issue is not a priority for young people, Beller said. A discussion of college tuition or of jobs could bring more younger voters to the polls, she said.

Beller said she does not expect next week’s election for governor to bring out many younger voters.

“There’s very little about the Tomblin-Maloney campaign that has to do with issues young people deal with,” she said.

The 51st State?

It is very difficult to create a new state from an existing one. For one thing, each state has an intricate set of internal connections, as the case of California demonstrates.

Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone has proposed creating a new state out of 13 counties in Southern California, including his own. The North County Times reports that Supervisor Bob Buster has practical objections:

"Are we going to get more water from the north from this? Are we going to get our (UC Riverside) medical school sooner because we divorced ourselves from the UC system statewide?" Buster asked. He said he doubted that.

Much of the region's water is piped in from Northern California through a complex system of canals, reservoirs and levees that stretches for hundreds of miles.

And a few days ago, the state passed a budget for fiscal year 2011-12 that left out money for UC Riverside's planned School of Medicine, jeopardizing accreditation and pushing back the school's opening from fall 2012 to 2013 at the earliest.

"I think a proposal like this weakens us," Buster said.

San Diego and Orange counties aside, he said, most of the other candidate counties have weak economies with high unemployment.

And Buster said it doesn't make sense to form a South California without Los Angeles County.

"We have to work with Los Angeles on a wide variety of regional issues," he said, mentioning water, transportation, air pollution, international trade and the huge amount of freight that rolls through the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

And there are constitutional hurdles. Article IV, section 3, clause 1 of the Constitution provides:

New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new States shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.

Even if everyone in the 13 counties approved of partition, it would still require the approval of the California Legislature. Though theoretically possible, such approval is practically impossible. Nothing like it has happened since West Virginia broke off from Virginia during the Civil War -- and then only because a rump legislature approved after the regular legislature joined the Confederacy.

And then, Congress would have to approve. Democrats would strongly oppose the creation of a GOP-leaning 51st state. Unless Republicans were to gain the 60 Senate seats necessary to overcome a filibuster, such a proposal could not pass.