Worship Attendance in the States

 Many posts have discussed the role of religion in American life.  

Alex Fitzpatrick and Alice Feng at Axios:

Data: Household Pulse Survey; Note: Adults who say they never attend a service or attend less than once a year; Map: Alice Feng/Axios

Vermont (75%), New Hampshire (66%) and Maine (66%) have the highest share of adults who say they never or seldom attend church or religious services, compared to the national average of 49%, per a new Axios analysis of Household Pulse Survey data.

Why it matters: More than three-quarters of Americans say religion's role in public life is shrinking, per a recent Pew Research Center survey — the highest level since the group first started tracking such sentiment in 2001.Many Americans are unhappy about that, with about half of adults telling Pew both that "religion is losing influence and that this is a bad thing."
About 57% of adults say that religion has a positive impact on American life, per Pew.

The other side: Mississippi (32%), Alabama (36%) and Louisiana (37%) have the lowest share of adults who say they never or seldom attend services.

Overdoses and Life Expectancy

The Centers for Disase Control reports that life expectancy dipped slightly in 2016

• Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2016 was 78.6 years, a decrease of 0.1 year from 2015.
• The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 0.6% from 733.1 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2015 to 728.8 in 2016. Age-specific death rates between 2015 and 2016 increased for younger age groups and decreased for older age groups.
• The 10 leading causes of death in 2016 remained the same as in 2015, although unintentional injuries became the third leading cause, while chronic lower respiratory diseases became the fourth.

Another CDC report suggests that drug overdoses were the cause. 

• In 2016, there were more than 63,600 drug overdose deaths in the United States.
  The age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths in 2016 (19.8 per 100,000) was 21% higher than the rate in 2015 (16.3).
• Among persons aged 15 and over, adults aged 25–34, 35–44, and 45–54 had the highest rates of drug overdose deaths in 2016 at around 35 per 100,000.
• West Virginia (52.0 per 100,000), Ohio (39.1), New Hampshire (39.0), the District of Columbia (38.8), and Pennsylvania (37.9) had the highest observed age-adjusted drug overdose death rates in 2016.
• The age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids other than methadone (drugs such as fentanyl, fentanyl analogs, and tramadol) doubled between 2015 and 2016, from 3.1 to 6.2 per 100,000.

Secular New Hampshire

Frank Newport writes at Gallup:

New Hampshire is the least religious state in the U.S., edging out Vermont in Gallup's 2015 state-by-state analysis. Mississippi has extended its eight-year streak as the most religious state, followed closely by neighboring Alabama.

 These state-by-state results are based on over 174,000 interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking in 2015, including more than 480 interviews in every state and more than 1,000 interviews in most states. Complete results and sample sizes are shown at the end of the article.

...
Over the past eight years, New Hampshire and Vermont have vied for the bottom position on Gallup's ranking of the most religious states. This year, New Hampshire comes in two percentage points lower than Vermont, and those two states are significantly lower in religiosity than the next two states, also in New England: Maine and Massachusetts.

New Hampshire is in the national spotlight this week as the presidential candidates focus on next Tuesday's primary in the Granite State. According to entrance polls of Iowa caucus voters, Ted Cruz's win in the GOP caucus on Feb. 1 in Iowa was driven by his strong appeal to highly religious or evangelical Republicans -- who turned out in large numbers. Although Iowa as a state has only average religiosity, it is still significantly more religious than New Hampshire, suggesting that Cruz will have fewer evangelicals to bring out to vote in that state's primary.

Registered Independents

A new report from Third Way examines voter registration data, showing an increase in the the number of voters not formally affiliated with either party.

The number of registered Independents has increased since 2008 in many of the battleground states that will decide the 2012 election. Among 12 likely battleground states, 8 have partisan voter registration—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In 7 of these 8 battleground states (all but Iowa), Independent registration gained ground relative to both parties in terms of voter registration between 2008 and 2011.

In each battleground state, Democratic registration fared worse relative to both Republican and Independent registration between 2008 and 2011. In all eight states, Republican registration gained relative to Democratic registration between 2008 and 2011.

The importance of Independents has grown over time as voters are increasingly leaving the traditional two-party system. Based on the combination of this general trend and the rise in both registration and self-identification of Independents since 2008, the most likely scenario for 2012 is that Independents will make up a bigger portion of the electorate next year than in any election since 1976, based on national exit polls.

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Religion and the Upcoming Primaries

At Gallup, Frank Newport offers data about religion in the next three primary states:

The three remaining states with GOP primaries this month -- New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida -- present very different religious profiles, and therefore different religious contexts for the Republican candidates’ campaigns. 

The biggest religious distinction is between New Hampshire, which holds its primary Jan. 10, and South Carolina, which has its primary on Saturday, Jan. 21. New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the union by any measure, while South Carolina is one of the most religious states. 

I base this analysis of the relative religiosity of the states on two measures: self-reported church attendance, and the percentage of residents who do not have a formal religious identity. 

	NH	SC	Florida	USA
Attend at least monthly	35%	66%	57%	54%
No Formal Rel. Identity	22%	10%	13%	14%

 ...

New Hampshire would be relative fertile ground for Santorum -- in the abstract -- given that it has a higher than average Catholic population. One problem with this assumption arises from my analysis of data from December indicated that Catholics nationally were no more likely to support either Santorum or Newt Gingrich (the other Catholic in the race) than any other candidate. So it’s not clear if Santorum will benefit politically from New Hampshire’s disproportionate Catholic skew.

On the other hand, the relative irreligiousness of New Hampshire residents would suggest that Santorum has no particularly strong religious constituency to play to leading up to next Tuesday's primary. This in theory may be less auspicious for Santorum’s chances of beating expectations in the Granite State.

...
The high level of religiosity of the residents of South Carolina would seem to be a plus for Santorum’s religious-centric, family-value-oriented campaign positioning. The low percentage of Catholics in South Carolina, on the other hand, does not give him any religious-branding advantage, and its possible that Protestants may have some lingering suspicion of Catholics, given that they are relatively rare in the Palmetto state.

Romney would appear to face a more significant challenge in South Carolina. As noted, our national polling suggests that highly religious Protestants Republicans are somewhat less likely to support Romney than the national average. And there are a lot of these in South Carolina.

Views of Santorum

Political scientists are commenting on the rise of Rick Santorum and its relationship to the place of religion in American politics.

Professor Hunter Baker of Union University writes at The Jackson Sun:

The odds are against him, but Santorum has an interesting appeal. He is a social conservative with a message of interest to working people in America. His economic plan emphasizes a strategy to maintain and expand the manufacturing base. As a Catholic son of the Rust Belt, he has the potential to build a broad coalition.

On the other hand, he is arguably the most hated candidate by the gay rights lobby for his blunt opposition to both gay marriage and adoption. Those commitments alone practically guarantee extremely negative treatment for his campaign from cultural elites in the media and entertainment industries.

Santorum has been largely overlooked so far as he stood at the edge of the podium in debates, dismissed due to low poll numbers. When he was noticed, it was usually because he complained about how few questions he was getting. Sen. Santorum, the stage is yours for at least the next several news cycles. We shall see what you can do with it.

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports:

SMU political science professor Matthew Wilson, who follows evangelicals' role in the campaign, said it's not out of the question that they will ultimately back Romney.

"Basically, the evangelical leaders are either going to have to make a last-ditch push for Santorum or make their peace with Romney so as not to appear irrelevant," Wilson said in an e-mail.

The Financial Times reports:

“People are now paying attention to Rick Santorum and saying that he has a chance,” said David White, chairman of the political science department at Francis Marion University in South Carolina.

He might also be helped by local evangelicals’ unease about Mr Romney’s religion, Mormonism, and by the large Pennsylvanian population in the state as older people migrate south for the winter.

About 60 per cent of residents in both Iowa and South Carolina describe themselves as evangelical Christians, compared with only 23 per cent of New Hampshire residents.
...

Andrew Smith, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire, said Mr Santorum would have a difficult time in the Granite State, where his messages about family and abortion would not gain much traction.

“This is not a very religious state and people are not concerned about social issues,” Mr Smith said. “But his bigger problem is that he has no money and he has no organisation. He has to rely on media attention to reach voters.”

Presidential Nomination Campaigns Are Changing

Michael Barone names three "rules" of presidential nomination campaigns that seem to be changing.

First, up-front money is essential.

In 1992, Jerry Brown kept repeating his campaign's 800 number so people could phone in contributions. In 2008, and especially this time, candidates are raising money through email. That's far faster and cheaper than snail mail.

Money can rush in rapidly. Scott Brown's Massachusetts Senate campaign was taking in $1 million in the last days after polls showed him within striking range. Herman Cain was deluged with millions after the news media reported he had been accused of sexual harassment.

Second, personal contact is the main way to win Iowa and New Hampshire.

But current Iowa polling But current Iowa polling shows Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain and Mitt Romney in a tie for the lead there. According to the tracker, in the 38 days since Oct. 15, Gingrich has had Iowa campaign events on eight days, Cain on three and Romney on two. Rick Santorum has had Iowa events on 19 of those days and is the only candidate to have held them in all the state's 99 counties. But he's averaging only 4 percent in Iowa polls taken during that time.

Instead of personal contact, voters seem to be making decisions based on performance in debates, which thanks to cable news have been viewed by many more voters than in the past, and by what they've been reading and watching on the Internet. [See here for a survey on how debates are influencing Republicans.]

Third, religious and social conservatives drive GOP nominations.

Iowa caucuses are open to anyone who shows up, and in 2008 only 119,000 Republicans did so in a state of 3 million. That leaves a large potential reservoir of newcomers this time.

Iowa pollster Ann Selzer reports less enthusiasm among evangelical Christians in this cycle, and some local Republicans predict a larger turnout this time. That could mean an infusion of new participants, with results that can't be extrapolated from past contests. [Also note that libertarian Ron Paul is doing well in some Iowa polls.]